Margin dynamics Margin multiple295.78x Margin funds1087.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple343.11x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 680.9100M
2 辉立证券辉立 205.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 107.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 59.4100M
5 华盛证券华盛 15.1100M
6 长桥证券长桥 5.4100M
7 盈立证券盈立 5.2100M
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 3.4100M
9 FunderstoneFunderstone 2.3100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:17+08:000.00416043507817811
2025-12-30T10:03:33+08:000.05813732154996601
2025-12-30T10:03:45+08:000.07605710401087695
2025-12-30T10:07:06+08:000.15763426240652617
2025-12-30T10:34:31+08:000.1577702243371856
2025-12-30T11:16:23+08:000.1647858599592114
2025-12-30T11:16:41+08:000.19961930659415364
2025-12-30T11:16:56+08:000.7760978925900748
2025-12-30T11:17:13+08:000.8984636301835486
2025-12-30T11:17:24+08:000.917226376614548
2025-12-30T12:14:48+08:000.9192658055744392
2025-12-30T12:15:21+08:000.9363426240652617
2025-12-30T12:15:44+08:001.0342352141400408
2025-12-30T12:16:05+08:001.1084160435078179
2025-12-30T13:49:00+08:001.1117878993881714
2025-12-30T13:49:39+08:001.1179877634262407
2025-12-30T13:49:59+08:001.8195513256288238
2025-12-30T13:50:21+08:001.8388851121685927
2025-12-30T13:50:39+08:001.8552005438477226
2025-12-30T14:02:28+08:001.858382053025153
2025-12-30T14:03:44+08:001.8825016995241333
2025-12-30T14:05:10+08:001.8847586675730796
2025-12-30T14:08:11+08:002.1430863358259686
2025-12-30T14:08:32+08:002.1661726716519376
2025-12-30T15:04:05+08:002.1663902107409925
2025-12-30T15:04:21+08:002.1679673691366417
2025-12-30T15:04:54+08:002.1826784500339906
2025-12-30T15:05:12+08:002.19393609789259
2025-12-30T15:05:30+08:002.229286199864038
2025-12-30T16:02:05+08:002.290496261046907
2025-12-30T16:03:26+08:002.3321549966009516
2025-12-30T16:03:45+08:002.3325900747790618
2025-12-30T16:11:01+08:002.6317063222297756
2025-12-30T17:12:36+08:002.63393609789259
2025-12-30T17:12:47+08:002.8516655336505776
2025-12-30T17:12:57+08:002.879700883752549
2025-12-30T17:13:09+08:004.2447586675730795
2025-12-30T17:54:59+08:005.6043779741672335
2025-12-30T18:01:09+08:005.606526172671652
2025-12-30T18:09:18+08:005.80418762746431
2025-12-30T18:09:41+08:006.138382053025153
2025-12-30T18:09:56+08:007.179850441876274
2025-12-30T18:11:15+08:007.481903467029232
2025-12-30T20:44:43+08:007.588225696804894
2025-12-30T20:45:01+08:007.590020394289599
2025-12-30T20:45:21+08:007.599592114208022
2025-12-30T20:45:45+08:007.691339225016995
2025-12-30T20:46:03+08:007.691883072739633
2025-12-30T20:46:20+08:008.855717199184229
2025-12-30T20:46:25+08:008.855934738273284
2025-12-30T20:46:55+08:008.924242012236574
2025-12-30T20:47:13+08:008.923589394969408
2025-12-30T20:47:30+08:009.075866757307955
2025-12-30T20:48:07+08:009.075893949694086
2025-12-30T21:40:02+08:009.191053704962611
2025-12-30T21:40:25+08:009.563589394969409
2025-12-30T22:22:31+08:009.563371855880353
2025-12-30T22:22:56+08:009.609843643779742
2025-12-30T22:23:11+08:009.61052345343304
2025-12-30T22:23:25+08:0010.002093813732156
2025-12-31T08:57:42+08:0010.002066621346023
2025-12-31T08:58:21+08:0010.002719238613189
2025-12-31T08:59:12+08:0010.08709721278042
2025-12-31T08:59:15+08:0010.610849762066621
2025-12-31T08:59:31+08:0010.610849762066621
2025-12-31T08:59:54+08:0011.075839564921822
2025-12-31T09:00:11+08:0011.133487423521414
2025-12-31T10:02:25+08:0011.138001359619306
2025-12-31T10:03:38+08:0011.547246770904147
2025-12-31T10:03:41+08:0011.599592114208022
2025-12-31T10:05:06+08:0011.607450713800135
2025-12-31T10:06:23+08:0011.74613188307274
2025-12-31T10:06:27+08:0011.936478585995921
2025-12-31T10:09:04+08:0012.3637525492862
2025-12-31T11:02:58+08:0012.635676410605031
2025-12-31T11:04:43+08:0012.769435757987763
2025-12-31T11:06:03+08:0012.770849762066621
2025-12-31T11:07:21+08:0012.835594833446635
2025-12-31T11:08:29+08:0013.270673011556765
2025-12-31T12:02:55+08:0013.272386131883072
2025-12-31T12:04:46+08:0013.358341264445954
2025-12-31T12:06:24+08:0013.389422161794698
2025-12-31T12:07:46+08:0013.737484704282801
2025-12-31T13:44:10+08:0013.737239972807615
2025-12-31T13:44:13+08:0013.701019714479946
2025-12-31T13:44:16+08:0013.733242692046227
2025-12-31T13:44:19+08:0013.997008837525494
2025-12-31T13:44:22+08:0013.997036029911625
2025-12-31T14:24:45+08:0014.178273283480625
2025-12-31T14:24:51+08:0014.223657375934739
2025-12-31T14:24:55+08:0014.22368456832087
2025-12-31T14:24:58+08:0014.35148878314072
2025-12-31T14:31:36+08:0015.076220258327668
2025-12-31T15:27:17+08:0015.210169952413324
2025-12-31T15:27:25+08:0015.302216179469749
2025-12-31T15:27:28+08:0015.305778382053026
2025-12-31T15:27:33+08:0015.342868796736914
2025-12-31T15:27:46+08:0015.46368456832087
2025-12-31T15:27:49+08:0015.463711760707001
2025-12-31T15:27:55+08:0016.554126444595514
2025-12-31T15:33:05+08:0016.564840244731474
2025-12-31T16:20:09+08:0017.231053704962612
2025-12-31T16:20:12+08:0017.241794697484703
2025-12-31T16:20:22+08:0017.260258327668254
2025-12-31T16:20:25+08:0017.47738953093134
2025-12-31T16:20:27+08:0017.477307953772943
2025-12-31T16:20:30+08:0018.32299116247451
2025-12-31T16:32:29+08:0018.326553365057784
2025-12-31T16:49:56+08:0018.327341944255608
2025-12-31T17:01:24+08:0018.344418762746432
2025-12-31T17:04:08+08:0018.4862270564242
2025-12-31T17:05:21+08:0018.6
2025-12-31T17:06:01+08:0019.38314072059823
2025-12-31T17:25:31+08:0019.383358259687288
2025-12-31T18:07:57+08:0019.516600951733516
2025-12-31T18:09:08+08:0019.538518014955812
2025-12-31T18:09:34+08:0019.539388171312034
2025-12-31T18:10:39+08:0019.66512576478586
2025-12-31T18:13:39+08:0020.47654656696125
2025-12-31T18:19:25+08:0020.84636301835486
2025-12-31T19:57:33+08:0020.860883752549285
2025-12-31T19:57:47+08:0020.86110129163834
2025-12-31T19:57:56+08:0020.861291638341264
2025-12-31T19:58:43+08:0020.861672331747112
2025-12-31T19:59:12+08:0020.95651937457512
2025-12-31T20:00:04+08:0021.089762066621347
2025-12-31T20:06:36+08:0021.1081441196465
2025-12-31T20:08:13+08:0021.23594833446635
2025-12-31T21:37:17+08:0021.657811012916383
2025-12-31T21:38:39+08:0021.902542488103332
2025-12-31T22:12:47+08:0021.903793337865398
2025-12-31T22:13:01+08:0021.986322229775663
2025-12-31T22:14:05+08:0022.42411964649898
2026-01-01T09:20:31+08:0022.45283480625425
2026-01-01T09:22:28+08:0022.452780421481986
2026-01-01T09:23:05+08:0022.474860639021074
2026-01-01T09:26:16+08:0022.690169952413324
2026-01-01T09:27:17+08:0022.690169952413324
2026-01-01T09:27:43+08:0023.544010876954452
2026-01-01T09:28:22+08:0023.601114887831407
2026-01-01T10:07:18+08:0023.60184908225697
2026-01-01T10:07:50+08:0023.623657375934737
2026-01-01T10:08:19+08:0023.726988443235893
2026-01-01T13:15:17+08:0023.72984364377974
2026-01-01T13:15:24+08:0023.73343303874915
2026-01-01T13:16:36+08:0023.737566281441197
2026-01-01T13:20:15+08:0023.849734874235214
2026-01-01T13:21:26+08:0024.11078178110129
2026-01-01T13:22:20+08:0024.200516655336507
2026-01-01T13:22:47+08:0024.312005438477225
2026-01-01T16:21:14+08:0024.31420802175391
2026-01-01T16:22:44+08:0024.314126444595512
2026-01-01T16:23:51+08:0024.418300475866758
2026-01-01T16:25:26+08:0025.280299116247452
2026-01-01T16:25:53+08:0025.734411964649897
2026-01-01T18:18:55+08:0025.73601631543168
2026-01-01T18:21:19+08:0025.950129163834127
2026-01-01T18:22:02+08:0026.355295717199184
2026-01-01T18:22:33+08:0026.706077498300477
2026-01-01T20:36:22+08:0026.70629503738953
2026-01-01T20:37:06+08:0026.70284160435078
2026-01-01T20:37:35+08:0026.70352141400408
2026-01-01T20:38:59+08:0026.815635622025834
2026-01-01T20:40:12+08:0026.943439836845684
2026-01-01T20:40:53+08:0027.26702923181509
2026-01-01T22:13:05+08:0027.268062542488103
2026-01-01T22:13:34+08:0027.270373895309312
2026-01-01T22:15:06+08:0027.47782460910945
2026-01-01T22:15:57+08:0027.627382732834807
2026-01-01T22:16:29+08:0028.04070700203943
2026-01-02T08:52:08+08:0028.041985044187626
2026-01-02T08:54:37+08:0028.101182868796737
2026-01-02T08:56:37+08:0028.218246091094493
2026-01-02T08:56:40+08:0028.329653297076817
2026-01-02T08:58:19+08:0030.140666213460232
2026-01-02T09:00:54+08:0030.140666213460232
2026-01-02T09:03:38+08:0030.13359619306594
2026-01-02T09:04:27+08:0030.135717199184228
2026-01-02T09:05:15+08:0030.286879673691367
2026-01-02T09:06:08+08:0030.085656016315433
2026-01-02T10:09:30+08:0030.134683888511216
2026-01-02T10:09:50+08:0030.112712440516656
2026-01-02T10:09:53+08:0030.118667573079538
2026-01-02T10:10:00+08:0030.606852481305236
2026-01-02T10:10:03+08:0030.85707681849082
2026-01-02T10:10:08+08:0032.40160435078178
2026-01-02T11:18:51+08:0032.750129163834124
2026-01-02T11:19:59+08:0032.8362474507138
2026-01-02T11:21:12+08:0032.91116247450714
2026-01-02T11:21:16+08:0032.93533650577838
2026-01-02T11:21:19+08:0032.93925220938137
2026-01-02T11:21:21+08:0032.95040108769545
2026-01-02T11:21:24+08:0032.98727396329028
2026-01-02T11:23:17+08:0033.30770904146839
2026-01-02T11:23:24+08:0036.26352141400408
2026-01-02T11:34:24+08:0036.26365737593474
2026-01-02T11:52:05+08:0036.26901427600272
2026-01-02T12:12:14+08:0036.360897348742355
2026-01-02T12:13:41+08:0037.36595513256288
2026-01-02T12:15:01+08:0037.41218218898708
2026-01-02T12:15:53+08:0040.32448674371176
2026-01-02T13:48:49+08:0040.345941536369814
2026-01-02T13:48:55+08:0040.345723997280764
2026-01-02T13:49:03+08:0040.348089734874236
2026-01-02T13:49:09+08:0040.34991162474507
2026-01-02T13:50:57+08:0040.41027872195785
2026-01-02T13:52:36+08:0040.57305234534331
2026-01-02T13:53:25+08:0040.94830727396329
2026-01-02T13:54:29+08:0041.00231135282121
2026-01-02T14:04:35+08:0041.006281441196464
2026-01-02T14:05:46+08:0041.06762746430999
2026-01-02T14:07:09+08:0041.376097892590074
2026-01-02T14:10:24+08:0041.56029911624745
2026-01-02T14:11:32+08:0042.39238613188307
2026-01-02T14:12:42+08:0043.895254928619984
2026-01-02T15:26:43+08:0043.9894221617947
2026-01-02T15:26:45+08:0044.02085656016315
2026-01-02T15:26:48+08:0044.0342895989123
2026-01-02T15:26:51+08:0044.03600271923861
2026-01-02T15:29:39+08:0044.1556492182189
2026-01-02T15:30:17+08:0044.27214140040788
2026-01-02T15:31:01+08:0045.78947654656696
2026-01-02T15:31:51+08:0045.77473827328348
2026-01-02T16:11:04+08:0046.042664853840925
2026-01-02T16:11:49+08:0047.59263086335826
2026-01-02T16:12:28+08:0047.700285520054386
2026-01-02T17:27:38+08:0048.32299116247451
2026-01-02T17:29:57+08:0048.3438749150238
2026-01-02T17:30:11+08:0048.34569680489463
2026-01-02T17:30:28+08:0048.346267845003396
2026-01-02T17:30:42+08:0048.35282121006118
2026-01-02T17:31:59+08:0048.82357579877634
2026-01-02T17:33:00+08:0049.86504418762746
2026-01-02T17:33:26+08:0049.866838885112166
2026-01-02T17:33:53+08:0063.612590074779064
2026-01-02T17:59:47+08:0063.61503738953093
2026-01-02T18:07:41+08:0063.61452073419443
2026-01-02T18:10:20+08:0064.75116247450714
2026-01-02T18:18:22+08:0066.8349694085656
2026-01-02T18:21:55+08:0066.83657375934739
2026-01-02T20:53:06+08:0066.84013596193066
2026-01-02T20:53:23+08:0066.84263766145479
2026-01-02T21:06:17+08:0068.76652617267165
2026-01-02T21:07:26+08:0068.76674371176071
2026-01-02T21:09:33+08:0070.45811012916383
2026-01-02T21:10:10+08:0072.56280081577158
2026-01-02T21:10:46+08:0073.50093813732155
2026-01-02T22:22:34+08:0073.50915023793338
2026-01-02T22:22:49+08:0073.50912304554724
2026-01-02T22:23:53+08:0073.94621346023114
2026-01-02T22:24:38+08:0075.12908225696805
2026-01-03T08:41:45+08:0075.12804894629504
2026-01-03T08:45:19+08:0075.60209381373215
2026-01-03T08:46:18+08:0075.60209381373215
2026-01-03T08:46:42+08:0079.75709041468389
2026-01-03T10:45:13+08:0079.75986403806934
2026-01-03T10:47:54+08:0080.04019034670293
2026-01-03T10:48:43+08:0081.3236709721278
2026-01-03T10:49:07+08:0082.96337185588035
2026-01-03T13:34:46+08:0082.9650305914344
2026-01-03T13:34:59+08:0082.96524813052345
2026-01-03T13:37:36+08:0083.46591434398368
2026-01-03T13:38:59+08:0086.26401087695446
2026-01-03T13:39:34+08:0087.37889870836166
2026-01-03T16:48:51+08:0087.39676410605031
2026-01-03T16:51:52+08:0087.89329707681848
2026-01-03T16:53:13+08:0090.4956084296397
2026-01-03T16:53:38+08:0091.47725356900068
2026-01-03T19:02:52+08:0091.47692726036709
2026-01-03T19:03:06+08:0091.47714479945616
2026-01-03T19:05:27+08:0092.39159755268525
2026-01-03T19:06:48+08:0094.18085656016315
2026-01-03T19:07:09+08:0094.88513936097893
2026-01-03T21:49:10+08:0094.88500339904827
2026-01-03T21:50:13+08:0095.25468388851122
2026-01-03T21:50:54+08:0096.50553365057783
2026-01-03T21:51:27+08:0097.2342895989123
2026-01-03T22:12:56+08:0097.23771583956493
2026-01-03T22:13:20+08:0097.63798776342624
2026-01-03T22:14:16+08:0099.21514615907546
2026-01-04T08:16:13+08:0099.39545887151597
2026-01-04T08:16:18+08:0099.39556764106051
2026-01-04T08:16:22+08:0099.39219578518015
2026-01-04T08:16:34+08:00100.66031271244051
2026-01-04T08:16:38+08:00106.4550101971448
2026-01-04T12:34:36+08:00108.6412780421482
2026-01-04T12:40:45+08:00108.64489462950374
2026-01-04T12:40:49+08:00108.64503059143439
2026-01-04T12:40:53+08:00108.64611828687967
2026-01-04T12:40:57+08:00108.64590074779062
2026-01-04T12:41:02+08:00108.64633582596873
2026-01-04T12:41:06+08:00108.64600951733514
2026-01-04T12:41:21+08:00108.76649898028552
2026-01-04T12:41:25+08:00109.20552005438478
2026-01-04T12:41:29+08:00109.59662814411965
2026-01-04T12:41:33+08:00110.03200543847723
2026-01-04T12:41:47+08:00110.83690006798096
2026-01-04T12:41:51+08:00113.18360299116247
2026-01-04T12:41:55+08:00116.10406526172672
2026-01-04T12:42:00+08:00117.56157715839565
2026-01-04T14:59:07+08:00117.83029231815092
2026-01-04T14:59:12+08:00120.37278042148199
2026-01-04T14:59:17+08:00120.75230455472467
2026-01-04T14:59:22+08:00123.5830319510537
2026-01-04T15:07:21+08:00125.85087695445276
2026-01-04T15:08:30+08:00126.22417403127125
2026-01-04T19:12:17+08:00129.43559483344663
2026-01-04T19:12:22+08:00133.07937457511898
2026-01-04T19:12:27+08:00136.3533378653977
2026-01-04T19:12:33+08:00138.8822297756628
2026-01-04T19:19:44+08:00139.31192386131883
2026-01-04T19:19:49+08:00139.6844323589395
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
21,903
→
Avg lots
45.1
→
Oversubscription
39x
39x = 21,903 × 45.1 ÷ 25,432 margin-weighted 100% → 343.1x
1x2719.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.55
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.65
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 10.68x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.553, Pool B α=0.653) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoIluvatar Corex Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Iluvatar Corex (09903): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect