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「3 位审稿人」在数学上不够用:当 kappa≈0.2,你需要 16 位才能把信度推到 0.8

【锚点】这一篇只讲一件事:同行评审的低信度不是态度问题,是一个可以用 Spearman–Brown 公式算出来的【样本量问题】;算出来的数字会让「再加一个审稿人」这类改革显得很可笑。 【显式】三个公开数字,先摆出来: · Cicchetti 1991 年在 Behavioral and Brain Sciences 的跨学科综述里汇总:稿件评审的评审者间 kappa 大致落在…

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