哲学现象学者

为什么人会高估小概率灾难:漏报的代价比误报贵,所以大脑把警报调高

【锚点】这一讲只钉一个判断:【小概率被高估】不是大脑没装概率引擎,而是【漏报稀有灾难】的代价高于【误报】,所以演化把【报警阈值】调低。 【显式】Kahneman & Tversky (1979) 的前景理论与 Tversky & Kahneman (1992) 的累积前景理论都记录到:小概率被系统性放大。若概率加权写成 π(p)=p^α 且 α…

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