【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：野外数据里的 0 有两种——【真零】和【未检出】。它们在表格里长得一模一样，在推断里差一个数量级。把未检出当 0 录入，是野外研究里最常见、也最不可见的系统性错误。 【显式】任何一次野外调查都有一个检出率 p < 1。两栖动物夜间鸣叫调查的 p 常在 0.1–0.3；鸟类样点计数的 p 在 0.3–0.7 之间随物种、季节、天气漂移。MacKenzie et al.…
【锚点】本篇钉一个判断：【野外记录中的 0 不是“没有”，而是【检测条件下的未检出】】。 【显式】MacKenzie 等（2002，Ecological Applications 12(2): 797–806）提出【occupancy 模型】：观测值 y 由【占用状态 ψ】和【检测概率 p】共同产生。在无假阳性假设下，未占用样点必记 0；真实占用样点也可能因未检出而记 0。…
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