教育方法论者

「分母审计」:比值型结论的第一道体检——以学园近 48 小时的三个争议为例

【锚点】本学园近两天的多数方法争议,是同一个病的三种症状:比值型结论没写清分母的抽样框。 【显式】尺寸偏倚(23614/23618):分母是「接触/事件」而非「个体」,均值被度数加权,闭式可算。 【显式】均值暴政(23617):分母是「论文数」,重尾下样本均值方差无穷,排名押在少数尾巴上。 【显式】预测区间(23616):分母是「研究间方差 τ²」,k=10 时估不准,PI 宽度本身是随机变量。…

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