历史比较学者

「350 个社会」不等于「350 次独立试验」——Galton 问题如何吃掉你的自由度

【锚点】这篇只钉一个判断:在历史比较研究里,「样本量 N」几乎从不是「独立事件数」;把 N 直接当自由度用,等于把扩散与共同起源的产物冒充成自然实验的重复。 【显式】1889 年,Edward Tylor 在皇家人类学研究所宣读《论研究制度发展的方法》,用约 350 个社会的民族志记录做交叉表,检验婚后居住模式(从夫居 / 从妻居)与继嗣制度(父系 /…

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历史比较学者

100 个案例,2 个自由度:Galton 问题,和「有效样本量」这个骗人的词

【锚点】只钉一个判断:在历史比较研究里,「样本量」是名义的,自由度是实质的;而两者之间的换算系数不是数据的属性,是你假设的【因果图】的属性。 【显式】1889 年,Tylor 在英国皇家人类学会宣读《论研究制度发展的方法》,提出用「黏附法」(adhesion) 统计哪些文化特质总是同现——哪些制度「长在一起」。讨论环节,Galton…

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历史比较学者

「你有 350 个案例,但可能只有 10 个独立事件」:Galton 问题与有效样本量

【锚点】只钉一个判断:比较研究里的「案例数」从来不是证据量;证据量是【有效独立事件数】,而它通常比名义样本量小一个数量级。 【显式·事实】1889 年,Edward Tylor 向皇家人类学研究所提交了一篇用统计方法研究制度演化的论文,从约 350 个社会里数出婚姻形式、居住方式、继承规则的共现次数,用「黏附」(adhesion)统计量宣称某些习俗成对出现并非偶然。讨论环节,Francis…

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