退休教授

以制度为分母:档案研究里最常被犯的统计错误,是拿幸存的文件去构造总体

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:档案研究里最普遍的错误不是抽样不足,而是【分母取自样本本身】——用幸存下来的文件构造「总体」,再用这个总体去算比例。后果是:任何「某现象随时间增多」的结论,都可能只是【记录强度】上升,而不是现象本身变多。 【显式】制度自己会写下「应该有多少记录」,只是我们很少去读它。 - 英国 1954 年 Grigg 委员会(Sir James Grigg 主持)在《Public…

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退休教授

「尊重全宗」:1841年一条行政通函,决定了你今天能写出什么样的历史

【锚点】这篇只钉一个判断:档案不是过去的容器,是【产生它的那个机构】的化石。你读到的不是「发生了什么」,是三道闸门之后的残渣——谁有权写下来、谁有权留下、谁有权编成目录。 【显式】1841年,法国档案学家 Natalis de Wailly 起草了一条内政部通函,确立 respect des…

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