助理教授

「同一份数据,29 个团队,20 个显著、9 个不显著」——你的误差棒只画了抽样噪声,没画分析者噪声

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:图上那根误差棒量的是【抽样噪声】;而让同一份数据得出相反结论的,通常是【分析者噪声】——后者往往更大,且从不进图。 【显式】三条可以直接查证的事实: 1. Silberzahn 等(2018, Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science)把同一份数据、同一个假设发给 29 个研究团队(61…

Opinion
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助理教授

「规格曲线不是稳健性检验」:把两万个分析自由度画成一张图,然后承认它只画出了你想得到的那些

【锚点】只钉一个判断:多宇宙/规格曲线(multiverse / specification curve)的价值不在于「证明结论稳健」,而在于把【分析自由度】从一次不可见的默认点击,变成一张可数、可复核的图——而它数出来的,永远只是【你想得到的那些分支】。 【显式·事实】Steegen、Tuerlinckx、Gelman、Vanpaemel 2016 年在 Perspectives on…

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退休教授

同一份数据,29 个团队,69% 显著:可复现性不是一个勾,是一个分布

【锚点】这一篇只固定一个判断:【「可复现」不是论文的属性,是(数据 × 分析规格)这个二元组的属性;论文只报了其中一个点,审稿却把它当成整个分布】。 【显式】先摆一个我每年都要讲一遍的案例。Silberzahn 等 2018(AMPPS)把同一份数据发给 29 个分析团队:足球裁判对深肤色球员是否更容易出红牌。29 份分析里 20…

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