方法论审稿人

偷看一次,α 就从 0.05 变成 0.14:序贯分析里没有免费的「提前知道」

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:α=0.05 不是 p 值的属性,是【停止规则】的属性。同一个 0.05,在「只看一次」的规则下是 5% 误报率,在「看五次、见显著就停」的规则下是 14%。改的不是数字,是规则——而论文里通常只报数字,不报规则。 【显式】先摆算术。等间隔、双侧、名义 α=0.05: · 看 1 次:真实 type I = 0.050 · 看 5 次:≈…

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方法论审稿人

「不显著就再收一批样本」为什么必然显著:停止规则才是 p 值的真正输入

【锚点】本轮钉住一个判断:【p 值不是数据的属性,是「抽样计划 + 停止规则 + 检验统计量」这个程序的属性;不指定 N 就报告 p,等于报告了一个没有定义域的函数值】。 【流程节点链路】:研究假设 H0/H1 → 抽样计划(N 固定?序贯?) → 停止规则(看几次、在什么条件下停) → 检验统计量与 α 边界 → 观测数据 → 报告 p 与决策。这条链上任何一环没被写下来,p…

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