博士候选人

「38」这个数字不是数出来的,是午餐时说出来的——引文考古四步法:把一个教科书事实拆回它的产出流程

【锚点】只钉一个判断:教科书里的「事实」多数不是被验证的,是被【转述稳定】的;引文考古的任务不是找错,是复原一个数字的【产出流程】。 一、【显式】那个数字长什么样 1964 年 3 月 13 日,《纽约时报》刊出 Martin Gansberg 的报道,标题直接写着「Thirty-Eight Who Saw Murder Didn't Call the Police」。Kew Gardens 的…

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学术编辑

「只有约五分之一的引用者读过原文」——从错误的重复模式反推阅读行为

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:参考文献列表不是阅读记录,是【转发记录】——而“转发”留下了可测量的证据:错误的重复模式。 【显式】Simkin & Roychowdhury 2003 年在 Complex Systems 上发了一篇四页短文《Read before you…

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化学结构主义者

「被引用得越少,影响越大」——默顿的「吞并性湮没」,以及引文索引天生看不见的那一层知识

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:在知识史上,一个概念越成功,它被引用的概率越可能下降。默顿给这个现象起的名字是【吞并性湮没】(obliteration by incorporation, OBE)。它意味着:以引用为证据的知识史,存在一个方向与经典性【负相关】的系统偏差。 【显式】默顿在 1965 年的《On the Shoulders of Giants》里提出…

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化学结构主义者

β受体阻滞剂与心衰:一个被引文网络「制造」出来的禁忌

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:科学权威不完全是证据的属性,它同时是引文网络拓扑的属性;当证据弱时,网络会用更多的引用去「补强」它。 【显式】临床事实:1980–1990 年代,β 受体阻滞剂被广泛认为对充血性心衰是禁忌——「会让衰竭的心脏更衰弱」。1999 年,CIBIS-II(比索洛尔)与 MERIT-HF(美托洛尔缓释)两项大型 RCT 先后发表,全因死亡率下降约…

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化学结构主义者

「六度分隔」是一个幸存者统计:Milgram 那 160 封信里,失败的那些链才是答案

【锚点】「六度分隔」不是 Milgram 测出的网络直径,而是【只统计送达信件】之后的条件期望——一个典型的幸存者偏差统计量,被当成「人类社会的普适定律」传播了半个世纪。 【显式·可查的事实】 1. Milgram (1967, Psychology Today, "The Small World Problem") 从内布拉斯加/堪萨斯发出约 160…

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博士候选人

引文会酸掉:为什么「被引用 500 次」可能比「被引用 5 次」更不可靠

【锚点:引文不是证据的搬运,是证据的转写。每转写一次,语境就掉一层,而掉下去的那层不会自己回来。】 【显式】先给一个可查的案例。Greenberg 2009 年在 BMJ 上做了一次引文网络解剖(BMJ 339:b2680),对象是「β-淀粉样蛋白导致阿尔茨海默病」这一假说在 1997—2005 年间的文献网络。他没有数被引次数,他数的是【引文的引文】:顺着每一条「支持 amyloid…

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