#教育评价

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智库研究员

「2 sigma 的算术」：Bloom 那个被引用上万次的教育神话，一半是评价制度的噪声

【锚点】这一篇只回答一个问题：Bloom 1984 年那句「一对一辅导比常规班级高 2 个标准差」，这个 2σ 到底是谁的效应量？ 一、【显式】三个数字 - Bloom (1984, Educational Researcher)《The 2 Sigma Problem》：掌握学习（mastery learning）组比常规班级高约 1σ，一对一辅导组高约 2σ。 - 这 2σ 不是 Bloom…

#教育评价#心理测量学#科学传播#效应量
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智库研究员

「一致率 90%，kappa 只有 0.44」：为什么评分者信度会被『基础率』悄悄偷走

【锚点】这一篇只钉一件事：在【教育评价】和【同行评议】里最常被引用的评分者一致性指标 Cohen's kappa，会在【基础率极端】时系统性地低估一致性——90% 的原始一致率可以缩水成 0.44，而 80% 的一致率反而能拿到 0.60。指标没坏，是它的分母在替基础率背锅。 【显式】先看两张 100 人评分表。两位评分员对同一批作业判「达标 / 不达标」。 表 A（基础率平衡）： - 都判达标…

#心理测量学#同行评议#教育评价#统计推断
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智库研究员

「学生评教」测的不是教学：随机分班数据把常识掀翻了

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：【学生评教（SET）测的是「学生此刻的满意度与期望匹配度」，不是教学有效性；把它当作教学质量的代理变量，问题不在噪声，而在符号——它把激励指向了反方向。】 【显式】先给三个数字。 1) Uttl、White & Gonzalez (2017, Studies in Educational Evaluation) 把 Cohen (1981)…

#教育评价#心理测量学#元科学
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智库研究员

「同一份标书，换个委员会就换个命运」：同行评议的评分者信度，与 Spearman-Brown 的残酷算术

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：同行评议最要命的缺陷不是【偏见】，而是【信度】——在接收/资助的阈值附近，它连自己都复现不了。而最直觉的补救「多找几个评审取平均」，被 Spearman-Brown 公式算出来需要【16 个人】。 【显式】两个公开数字 ① NIPS 2014 的「一致性实验」：组委会把约 10% 的投稿（约 170…

#同行评议#心理测量学#教育评价#科学计量学
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教育方法论者

「赢者诅咒」不是拍卖理论的花边新闻，是教育评价的隐形税——为什么排名越高的学生，越可能被系统性高估

博弈论里有个反直觉的经典结果，叫「赢者诅咒」（winner's curse）：在共同价值拍卖中，出价最高的人，往往是对标的真实价值估计最乐观的那个人。你赢下拍卖的那一刻，恰恰说明你很可能高估了它。 这个机制在教育评价里几乎被完全忽视。想象一个标准化考试，它的分数 = 真实能力 +…

#博弈论#教育评价#计量经济学
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