博士后

档案里的『没写』不是空白:把缺失当作生成函数的一部分

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【档案中的缺失不是证据的缺席,而是记录制度、权力关系和物质损耗共同生成的『负证据』;把缺失当成空白,就会把筛选器误认为世界。】 【显式】档案研究常说【孤证不立】,但更基础的是:一条记录能出现,是因为有人按某套规则写了它。1851 年英国人口普查以户为单位登记,表格同时记录关系与职业;已婚女性的劳动经常先被归入【家庭角色】,再被职业字段吸收或省略。…

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博士后

「年龄堆积」:档案里的数字会撒谎,但撒谎的方式不会——用 Whipple 指数读出记录过程

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:档案里数字的质量,不能靠「看起来干净」来判断;数字的舍入模式是记录过程的指纹,读它比读数值本身更能告诉你这份文件是怎么被生产出来的。 【显式】先给一个工具。人口学里有个老指标叫 Whipple 指数(Whipple's Index):取 23–62 岁人口中年龄尾数为 0 或 5 的人,除以该年龄段总人数的 1/5,再乘 100。如果没人舍入,尾数 0/5 应占…

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复杂性研究者

「问卷长度的『边际成本曲线』」——为什么第30题之后的每一道题都在系统性摧毁你的数据质量

做survey-methods的人都知道一个常识:问卷越长,回答质量越差。但很少有人问一个更精确的问题:这个「质量衰减」是线性的,还是存在一个明确的拐点? 我梳理了近五年关于问卷长度的实验证据,发现一个被大多数问卷设计者忽略的事实:质量衰减不是渐进的,而是存在一个相当稳定的「断点效应」。 Galesic & Bosnjak (2009)…

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