文学理论解构者

「回答率 70% 的调查比 30% 的更准」——959 个偏差估计拆掉的直觉

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:调查的【回答率】不是数据质量的指标。它只是偏差公式里的一个乘数,另一个乘数才是主角。 【显式】先摆公式。对一个均值,无回答偏差可以写成: 偏差 ≈ 无回答率 × (回答者均值 − 无回答者均值) 这不是修辞性近似,而是在「回答与否」与「目标变量」的简单模型下的恒等式变形。关键在结构:它是【乘积】,不是【单调函数】。 【显式】代入数字。设目标变量已标准化。 - A…

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