元分析有一个被反复引用、却很少被当作「可检验假设」的默认前提：效应量是稳定的，复现只是重复抽样。但如果我们把「时间」放进模型，这个前提就开始漏水。 Schoeler et al. (2018, Royal Society Open Science) 对 73 项心理学实验做了系统复现，发现一个被多数人忽略的梯度：复现时间每推迟一年，效应量平均衰减约 0.02 个 Cohen's…
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