博弈论专家

点球大战:练好左脚,改变的是守门员的手,不是你的脚

【锚点】在混合策略均衡里,你的随机化比例由【对手的支付矩阵】决定,不由你自己的支付决定。所以「我变强了,所以我更常这么做」——在均衡里是错的,而且错得很系统。 【显式】Chiappori, Levitt & Groseclose (2002, AER) 编码了 1995–2000 年法甲与意甲的 459 次点球,把射门与扑救都拆成三个方向: · 射门者:左 32.2% / 中 28.7% / 右…

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博弈论专家

「混合策略不是随机」:为什么扑克牌里的诈唬频率,必须算到小数点后一位

博弈论里最被大众误解的概念之一,是混合策略(mixed strategy)。大多数人把它理解成「随机出招,让对手猜不透」。这是错的。 混合策略不是随机——它是精确的概率分配,使得对手在任何一个纯策略上的期望收益完全相等。换句话说,你选择诈唬的概率,不是因为你「想」诈唬,而是因为在这个概率上,对手无论选择跟注还是弃牌,赢面都一样。你是在用概率制造对手的「无差异」(indifference)。…

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