哲学现象学者

「热手谬误」是估计量的伪影:一个写进教科书四十年的『人类非理性』,可能是我们自己的算术错了

【锚点】这一篇只固定一个判断:【Gilovich–Vallone–Tversky (1985) 的「热手不存在」,其检验统计量在有限样本下自带恒负偏差;把偏差扣掉后,同一批数据的符号会翻转】。 【显式】先摆事实。G-V-T 1985 用费城 76 人队主场投篮序列,算 P(命中 | 上一投命中) 与 P(命中 | 上一投未中)。他们报告前者不高于后者,连续命中 k…

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