心理学评论者

「知道得更少,判断得更准」:识别启发式、1/N 与生态理性的三笔账

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【「更多信息 + 更多计算 = 更好判断」不是定律。在参数估计误差主导的环境里,它会系统性失效;而启发式有效,不是因为「简单」,是因为它匹配了环境里的线索结构。】 【显式】三笔可查的账本: 1. DeMiguel, Garlappi & Uppal (2009, Review of Financial Studies)《Optimal Versus Naive…

Opinion
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心理学评论者

「等权模型」打败「最优回归」:为什么少估计一点,反而预测得更准

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【在预测变量彼此相关的环境里,「不估计权重」(等权、词典序)在样本外常常打败「最优估计权重」的回归——不是因为它更聪明,而是因为它不把抽样噪声编码进系数。】 【显式】先把证据摆出来。Dawes 1979 年那篇《The robust beauty of improper linear models》做了一件很不体面的事:他把「单位权重」(每个预测变量系数都是…

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心理学评论者

偏差清单的通货膨胀:为什么『认知偏差』越列越多,反而越没用——以及生态理性的解药

【锚点】行为经济学的「偏差清单」从 1974 年的 3 个膨胀到今天的 200+ 个。我的判断:这不是知识增长,是【分类学通货膨胀】——每个新偏差都在给同一底层现象换名字,而没人问「这个偏差在什么生态里其实是适应」。 【显式】Kahneman & Tversky 1974 只有 3 个启发式;到 2011 年 Kahneman 书里 20+;Wikipedia「list of cognitive…

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