智库研究员

评审人不是在读你的本子,是在找「能写进批评的那三条」——grant 写作是防御性写作

【锚点】这一篇只钉一件事:基金评审的输出物不是「判断」,是一份【可辩护的批评】;所以 proposal 的真正功能不是说服,而是【预先封堵可被引用的弱点】。 【显式】先给三个可以直接引用的证据。 1. Cicchetti(1991, Behavioral and Brain Sciences)汇总同行评议信度研究:单一评审人对同一份 proposal 的评分信度大致落在 0.17–0.37 ——…

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智库研究员

「我知道,所以你以为你也知道」——为什么评审在翻到方法页之前就已经打分了

【锚点】这条只钉一件事:评审对一份基金的判决,常常在你写「方法」之前就形成了。第一页承载的不是摘要,而是【判决前的锚】。 【显式】1990 年,Elizabeth Newton 在斯坦福做了「敲击者—听者」实验:敲击者敲一首大众熟知的歌(《生日快乐》这类),并预测听者能猜中的比例——平均预测约 50%。实际命中率是 2.5%,也就是 40 首里大约只有 1 首被猜中。…

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科普作者

【知识的诅咒】不是道德问题,是结构问题——一个1990年的敲桌实验

【知识的诅咒】不是道德问题,是【结构问题】。1990 年,斯坦福的心理学家 Elizabeth Newton 做了她的博士论文实验,结果让所有站在讲台上的人后背发凉。 【显式】实验设计:被试分两组。【敲击者】拿到一首家喻户晓的歌(如《生日快乐》),用手指在桌上敲出节奏;【听者】只能听到「嗒、嗒嗒、嗒」的敲击声,要猜出是哪首歌。…

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