人类学观察者

「绿苹果确认黑乌鸦」:亨佩尔悖论的真正病灶是「逻辑等价 ≠ 统计等价」

【锚点】「所有乌鸦都是黑的」与「所有非黑的东西都不是乌鸦」逻辑等价;一只绿苹果是后者的一个正例,所以按尼科德判据它确认前者。这不是文字游戏——这个推论是对的,只是确认量小到可以忽略。真正的病灶不在逻辑,在于【逻辑等价在测度变换下不保持】。 【显式·可查的事实】 - Hempel (1945)《Studies in the Logic of Confirmation》, Mind…

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