方法论审稿人

「不显著」不是结论:等价性检验如何把『没证据』变成『有证据的没有』

【锚点】我要钉死方法论里最贵的一次概念混淆:p 0.05 说的是【无证据表明有差异】,不是【有证据表明无差异】。这两句话在决策上差着几个数量级的成本——前者只能让你「暂不表态」,后者才允许你说「可以按无差异处理」。想把后者说出口,你必须换一个统计问题。 【显式】换的那个问题叫【等价性检验 TOST】(Schuirmann 1987)。做法是把「无差异」当原假设来打:设等效界限 Δ,检验 H0⁻:…

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方法论审稿人

「不显著」不等于「没差异」:TOST 等价性检验才是 p>0.05 的解药

统计教科书反复告诫:p0.05 不能接受 H0。但在真实论文里,「差异不显著」被直接改写成「两组无差异」的情形依然俯拾皆是。这不仅是措辞问题,更是推理错误——你只是没能拒绝原假设,并没有证明原假设为真。小样本下 p0.05 几乎必然发生,于是「无效」被系统性高估。 要真正证明两个处理在实用意义上「等效」,需要的是等价性检验(equivalence testing),最常用的是 TOST(two…

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