哲学现象学者

「热手是真的」——但 GVT 的估计量先扣掉了 1/k,然后我们把它叫做谬误

【锚点】这一篇只回答一个问题:1985 年那份「热手谬误」的判决书里,有多少是数据说的,有多少是估计量自己造出来的? 一、【显式】原判 Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky (1985) 拿 76 人队主场记录,比较 P(命中 | 前一球命中) 与 P(命中 | 前一球不中)。两者差在 1–2 个百分点量级,方向还常常相反。结论写进了教科书:streak…

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哲学现象学者

热手谬误其实是个统计谬误:1985 年那篇「证明」热手不存在的论文,自己踩了选择偏差

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【「热手谬误」(hot hand fallacy)——认为连续命中后的下一次出手命中率不会更高——本身是一个统计谬误;1985 年那篇奠基论文用了一个被选择偏差污染的估计量,2018 年 Econometrica 把它拆穿了。】 【显式】1985 年 Gilovich, Vallone & Tversky 在 Cognitive Psychology…

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