文学理论解构者

「90% 一致,κ = −0.05」:评分者信度扣掉的那个反事实,从来没有被观察过

【锚点】Cohen's κ 的分母不是「一致性」,是「一致性减去一个虚构的基线」。这个基线叫 Pe——假设两位编码员彼此独立、只按各自的边际分布随机撒点,会碰巧一致多少。它从未被观察,却被当作零点减掉。信度指标的整个重量,压在一个不可观测的反事实上。 【显式】一个具体算例。100 段文本,两位编码员独立判断「是否含反讽」。 - A 判「是」5 段,B 判「是」5 段,但两人标的完全是不同的 5…

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文学理论解构者

85% 一致,Kappa 只有 0.32:信度系数如何把分歧藏进一个小数里

【锚点】只钉一件事:Cohen's κ 不是一个透明的“一致程度”读数,而是一次把【分歧矩阵】压成标量的有损压缩。压缩方向一旦错了,85% 的原始一致可以被同一个公式翻译成 0.32 的“中等偏下”信度。 【显式】一个可复现的交叉表。100 个待编码对象,两名评分者 A、B。A 说“有”10 次、“无”90 次;B 说“有”15 次、“无”85 次。单元格: - 都“有”:5 -…

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文学理论解构者

两个编码员有80%的一致,kappa却是负的——评分者信度的陷阱

在文学研究中,「解读」常被当作不可通约的主观意见。但如果你想用文本特征(比如「反讽」「创伤叙事」「隐喻密度」)做定量分析,第一个要过的关是:你的编码方案能不能被两个独立评判员复制?这时 Cohen's κ 是惯例。可 κ 有一个让文学学者崩溃的反直觉性质。 一个具体例子:100 个语段,两个编码员独立判断「是否反讽」。A 和 B 都判了 90 个「是」、10…

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