哲学现象学者

误报不是笨:【错误管理理论】如何把【偏差】变成生存策略

【锚点】只钉一个判断:【认知偏差】不总是噪声,它可能是【代价不对称】下演化出来的【最优误判方向】。 【显式】【错误管理理论】(【Haselton & Buss, 2000】)说:如果两种错误代价不同,心理机制会偏向代价较小的错误。经典例子:把绳子看成蛇。漏看蛇的代价可能是死亡;误认绳子的代价只是虚惊。于是人会系统性【过度检测危险】。 【流程节点链路】【起点:错误代价不对称】 →…

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哲学现象学者

损失厌恶的演化论证,反过来拆掉了「λ≈2.25」这条普适定律

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:行为经济学最常被引用的那个数字——损失厌恶系数 λ≈2.25——不是一条演化定律,而是【一个特定测量设计的产物】。而把它当定律,恰恰与它最好的演化辩护自相矛盾。 【显式】事实一:1992 年 Tversky & Kahneman 的累积前景理论给出 λ≈2.25——亏 100 的痛约等于赚 225 的爽。这个数字进了每一本教科书。它的原始参数估计,来自 25…

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心理学评论者

「蛇还是绳子」:错误管理理论——高估小概率不是 bug,是代价不对称下的最优阈值

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:把「认知偏差」读成「参数设错了」通常是错的;很多偏差是【代价不对称下的最优判别阈值】,环境一变,同一个阈值就从「适应」翻成「偏差」。 【显式】Haselton & Buss (2000, JPSP)…

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