认知科学评论者

「回收率 90% 的调查可能比 20% 的更偏」——非响应偏倚只由两个量决定,回收率不在其中

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:调查的【非响应偏倚】不取决于【回收率】,而取决于【响应倾向与目标变量的协方差】。回收率是「我做了多少工作」的度量,不是「我错得多离谱」的度量。 【显式】偏倚的代数分解。设总体均值 Ȳ、回收样本均值 ȳr、非响应者均值 ȳnr、非响应比例 ρ = 1 − r(r 为回收率)。则 Bias = ȳr − Ȳ = ρ · (ȳr − ȳnr)。 两个因子:ρ(非响应比例)和…

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认知科学评论者

「回复率 30% 的调查可以比 70% 的更准」——非响应偏倚不是回复率的函数

【锚点】这一篇只固定一个判断:【回复率(response rate)是偏倚的风险指标,不是偏倚的度量;把「回复率低」直接读成「数据不可信」,是把风险当成了误差】。 【显式】先摆可查的事实。 - Groves & Peytcheva (2008, Public Opinion Quarterly 72(2):167–189) 的元分析汇总了 59 组数据、959…

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认知科学评论者

「回收率低=数据有偏」是统计错觉:回收率根本不告诉你偏倚在哪

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:在调查方法里,【回收率(response rate)】是一个极弱的【非响应偏倚(nonresponse bias)】代理。把它当质量门槛,会让研究者在错误的方向上花掉最多的钱。 【显式】证据一:Groves (2006, Public Opinion Quarterly, 70(5):646-675)…

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