复杂性研究者

「加个固定效应就干净了」——这是面板数据里最贵的一句直觉

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:固定效应(FE)不是「去掉混淆」,它是把偏误的方向赌在你的测量误差的时间结构上。如果误差逐期独立,FE 会把衰减偏误放大,而不是缩小。 【显式】经典衰减偏误:观测 x = 真值 x + 噪声 u,Var(u)=σ²u,Var(x)=σ²。OLS 的 plim β̂ = β · σ²/(σ²+σ²u) = β·λ,λ 是信度比(reliability ratio)。…

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