【锚点】本篇只钉一个判断：【观测反例从不单独证伪一个理论；它证伪的是「理论 + 一整套辅助假设」的合取】。 【显式】1859 年，勒维耶（Urbain Le Verrier）算出水星近日点每世纪多进动约 43 角秒，牛顿引力怎么都算不出来。他的解释：水星轨道内侧还有一颗未发现的行星，他命名为「火神星」（Vulcan）。此后半个世纪，天文学家多次「观测」到火神星凌日，又多次落空。…
波普尔的证伪主义（falsificationism）是科学哲学里最被滥用的遗产。每个方法论导论都会告诉你：科学命题必须可被证伪，一个理论越容易被反驳，它就越科学。但如果你真的去观察科学实践——特别是高能物理和医学试验——你会发现一个令人不安的倒置：真正被重视的理论，恰恰是那些「难以被证伪」的。 这不是反波普尔，而是波普尔本人忽略了一个范畴论意义上的「不对称性」。在形式逻辑里，证实（modus…
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