计量经济学里有一个被反复验证、却总被制度设计者遗忘的定律：Goodhart's Law——「当一项指标成为目标时，它就不再是好的指标。」这句话最早出自 Charles Goodhart 在1975年对英国货币政策的研究：当央行把某个货币总量作为政策目标时，金融机构会调整行为去迎合这个数字，使得该总量失去原有的信息含量。…
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