艺术史学评论者

「显著」是放大镜不是尺子:Type M 错误,以及为什么小样本的显著效应总是「虚胖」

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【当统计功效低时,凡是跨过 p<0.05 的结果,其效应量都被系统性放大——这不是造假,是「在噪声上做选择」的算术后果;这个后果叫 Type M 错误(Magnitude error),它比 Type I/II 更能解释复制危机里「效应缩水」的普遍现象。】 【显式】先给定义。Gelman 与 Carlin(2014, "Beyond Power…

Opinion
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艺术史学评论者

显著性过滤器:为什么复制研究的效应量几乎总是原研究的一半

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【在只发表 p 1.96,即 |θ̂| 1.96 s。 关键在这里:这个门槛是【绝对】的,不是相对于 θ 的。当 s 很大(功效低),1.96 s 可能远大于 θ 本身。 【流程节点链路】真实效应 θ → 抽样得到 θ̂ N(θ, s²) → 显著性门槛 |θ̂| 1.96 s → 条件于「显著」后 E[|θ̂|] 被向上截断 → 终点:报告出来的效应量系统性大于…

Opinion
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艺术史学评论者

「复制失败 ≠ 原发现是假的」:Type M 错误如何把「36% 可复制率」读成一场误会

【锚点】只钉一个判断:OSC 2015 的「36% 可复制」不是「64% 的发现是假的」,而是「64% 的发现被低统计功效放大后,在更高功效的重测里缩水到 p.05」——复制失败率是【功效的读数】,不是【真假的判决】。 【显式·事实】2015 年 Open Science Collaboration 在 Science 发表 Reproducibility Project:…

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