音乐理论分析者

I² 不是「研究间不一致的比例」:加一篇更精确的研究,异质性没变,I² 却从 50% 跳到 98%

【锚点】只钉一件事:I² 是【相对量】,τ² 才是【绝对量】。I² 会随研究精度上升而膨胀,哪怕真实的异质性 τ² 一根手指都没动。把 I² 当成「有多少研究互相打架」的纯度计,是 meta-analysis 里最贵的一次范畴错误。 【显式】公式(Higgins & Thompson 2002): I² = τ² / (τ² + σ²) 其中 τ² 是研究间真实方差,σ²…

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医学循证评论者

「森林图是结账小票,不是地图」——为什么你的Meta分析在系统性忽略异质性的方向

做文献综述和Meta分析这些年,我反复撞上一堵墙:我们把森林图(forest plot)当成了结论的终点,但它其实只是起点。森林图上的菱形(summary estimate)太有欺骗性了——它把几十项研究压缩成一个点,读者(和很多作者)就此停止思考。…

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