發行結構與機構
港股 IPO 發行結構與參與機構：甲乙組、內地參與、基石、保薦人、承銷團與綠鞋。
甲尾（A組最後一檔）期望中籤手數勉強超過或低於乙頭（B組第一檔）的股票。差距比越低，檔位結構越反常。
有基石投資者的IPO是否表現更好？對比有/無基石投資者IPO的平均首日回報、勝率和認購水平。氣泡大小=首日回報幅度, 綠色=正, 紅色=負。
| 行業 | 有基石數量 | 有基石回報 | 無基石數量 | 無基石回報 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3D打印/消费电子/智能制造 | 1 | 21.28% | 0 | — |
| CCUS | 0 | — | 1 | 44.25% |
| Other | 188 | 9.79% | 58 | 3.47% |
| 人工智能 | 12 | 88.71% | 9 | 143.11% |
| 企业服务/软件 | 8 | 21.67% | 0 | — |
| 储能电池 | 2 | 31.29% | 0 | — |
| 光电互连 | 1 | 44.74% | 0 | — |
| 光通信 | 1 | 4.61% | 0 | — |
| 其他零售商 | 0 | — | 1 | -45.75% |
| 冷链物流 | 2 | 0.33% | 0 | — |
| 化工新材料 | 2 | 7.79% | 0 | — |
| 医疗健康 | 9 | 29.79% | 5 | 91.04% |
哪些基石投資者能持續選中表現優異的IPO？按所投股票的首日平均回報排序，展示參與≥5筆交易的基石投資者戰績。氣泡大小 = 累計投資金額。
| # | 投資者 | 交易數 | 平均回報 | 勝率 | 最佳交易 | 最差交易 | 累計投資 (港元等值) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GIC | 5 | +153.14% | 40.0% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 02475 (-1.55%) | 18.3B |
| 2 | Aspex | 6 | +151.39% | 83.3% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 03308 (-2.04%) | 18.5B |
| 3 | Schroders | 6 | +141.03% | 100.0% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 03200 (+14.82%) | 2.6B |
| 4 | 淡马锡 | 8 | +102.74% | 87.5% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 03757 (-4.95%) | 17.9B |
| 5 | 工银理财 | 14 | +90.5% | 92.9% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 01081 (+0.0%) | 2.5B |
| 6 | 加皇环球资产管理(亚洲)有限公司 | 5 | +77.82% | 100.0% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 02137 (+3.15%) | 11.4B |
| 7 | 富国基金 | 10 | +77.05% | 90.0% | 03858 (+177.84%) | 01081 (+0.0%) | 2.3B |
| 8 | 富国基金管理有限公司 | 12 | +76.85% | 100.0% | 09606 (+116.7%) | 01758 (+21.61%) | 9.1B |
| 9 | 富国资产管理(香港)有限公司 | 14 | +76.43% | 100.0% | 09606 (+116.7%) | 02788 (+32.76%) | 8.8B |
| 10 | Eastspring | 5 | +73.65% | 80.0% | 00100 (+109.09%) | 02475 (-1.55%) | 6.0B |
| 11 | 汇添富基金管理股份有限公司 | 11 | +73.53% | 81.8% | 02155 (+258.87%) | 06669 (-26.05%) | 15.9B |
| 12 | TruMed | 11 | +70.93% | 100.0% | 09606 (+116.7%) | 06990 (+3.14%) | 9.8B |
| 13 | 广发基金 | 12 | +66.04% | 91.7% | 03858 (+177.84%) | 06880 (+0.0%) | 12.5B |
| 14 | Mirae Asset Securities Co., Ltd. | 6 | +64.68% | 66.7% | 00068 (+144.09%) | 02050 (-0.13%) | 6.3B |
| 15 | Huadeng Technology | 9 | +64.05% | 77.8% | 07666 (+126.67%) | 03308 (-2.04%) | 7.0B |
| 16 | Invesco Advisers, Inc. | 7 | +62.9% | 71.4% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 02268 (-2.3%) | 48.6B |
| 17 | 易方达基金管理有限公司 | 12 | +60.93% | 83.3% | 09606 (+116.7%) | 06669 (-26.05%) | 13.7B |
| 18 | Cormorant Asset Management, LP | 10 | +60.73% | 100.0% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 06996 (+1.11%) | 10.0B |
| 19 | Rock Springs Capital Master Fund LP | 8 | +60.67% | 75.0% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 02126 (-7.56%) | 6.0B |
| 20 | Prime Capital Funds | 5 | +60.35% | 100.0% | 06969 (+150.0%) | 01801 (+18.6%) | 12.7B |
| 21 | Boyu | 5 | +59.61% | 60.0% | 00100 (+109.09%) | 00625 (-0.12%) | 1176.6B |
| 22 | 富国香港 | 9 | +59.2% | 100.0% | 03858 (+177.84%) | 02768 (+4.03%) | 6022万 |
| 23 | 正心谷资本 | 6 | +59.17% | 100.0% | 09887 (+91.71%) | 02657 (+9.3%) | 6.7B |
| 24 | Fidelity International | 18 | +59.08% | 100.0% | 01024 (+160.87%) | 06996 (+1.11%) | 85.1B |
| 25 | Worldwide Healthcare Trust PLC | 6 | +58.79% | 100.0% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 01521 (+4.69%) | 11.3B |
| 26 | 3W Fund | 17 | +57.84% | 82.4% | 01879 (+383.62%) | 01688 (-4.62%) | 11.6B |
| 27 | LAV Amber Limited | 5 | +56.2% | 60.0% | 06606 (+215.08%) | 06628 (-17.25%) | 6.4B |
| 28 | HHLR Advisors, Ltd. | 8 | +55.7% | 100.0% | 06656 (+103.42%) | 09981 (+2.94%) | 9.2B |
| 29 | Perseverance Asset Management International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. | 9 | +53.7% | 88.9% | 06656 (+103.42%) | 06669 (-26.05%) | 24.6B |
| 30 | BlackRock Funds | 18 | +52.6% | 83.3% | 01024 (+160.87%) | 02142 (-10.99%) | 97.9B |
僅分析參與≥5筆交易的基石投資者。投資金額以港元等值計（美元按~7.8換算）。基石投資者的過往業績不代表未來IPO表現。
哪些IPO保薦人能持續帶來表現優異的IPO？按保薦項目的首日平均回報排序，展示參與≥5筆交易的保薦人戰績。氣泡大小 = 交易數量。綠色 = 正平均回報，紅色 = 負平均回報。
| # | 保薦人 | 交易數 | 獨家保薦 | 聯席保薦 | 平均回報 | 勝率 | 最佳項目 | 最差項目 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 上银国际有限公司 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +814.41% | 80.0% | 08091 (+2937.04%) | 01612 (-6.0%) |
| 2 | 新源资本有限公司 | 5 | 4 | 1 | +494.63% | 80.0% | 08149 (+1170.59%) | 08547 (+0.0%) |
| 3 | 大有融资有限公司 | 24 | 24 | 0 | +434.56% | 87.5% | 08369 (+1900.0%) | 02682 (-44.0%) |
| 4 | 东皓资本有限公司 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +417.99% | 100.0% | 08411 (+2005.0%) | 08392 (+11.36%) |
| 5 | 天财资本国际有限公司 | 11 | 11 | 0 | +375.54% | 90.9% | 08182 (+1525.0%) | 08417 (-2.94%) |
| 6 | 浩德融资有限公司 | 16 | 15 | 1 | +242.73% | 75.0% | 08097 (+1556.0%) | 01346 (-27.06%) |
| 7 | 络绎资本有限公司 | 7 | 6 | 1 | +217.23% | 85.7% | 08432 (+1296.55%) | 08523 (-20.0%) |
| 8 | 丰盛融资有限公司 | 41 | 40 | 1 | +205.8% | 82.9% | 08221 (+2033.33%) | 01660 (-22.5%) |
| 9 | 建泉融资有限公司 | 11 | 11 | 0 | +190.58% | 63.6% | 08290 (+2100.0%) | 06822 (-24.64%) |
| 10 | 华富建业企业融资有限公司 | 18 | 17 | 1 | +174.98% | 94.4% | 08245 (+1145.61%) | 01522 (-27.0%) |
| 11 | 富比资本有限公司 | 16 | 16 | 0 | +106.13% | 68.8% | 08240 (+1500.0%) | 08096 (-32.14%) |
| 12 | 派杰亚洲有限公司 | 18 | 15 | 3 | +95.08% | 61.1% | 08300 (+1166.67%) | 08511 (-23.85%) |
| 13 | 汇富融资有限公司 | 30 | 29 | 1 | +71.83% | 66.7% | 08133 (+965.0%) | 02187 (-29.33%) |
| 14 | 凯基金融亚洲有限公司 | 7 | 7 | 0 | +71.13% | 85.7% | 08349 (+388.57%) | 08353 (-18.92%) |
| 15 | 中国光大融资有限公司 | 40 | 32 | 8 | +67.41% | 62.5% | 08052 (+1900.0%) | 02450 (-44.5%) |
| 16 | 兴业金融融资有限公司 | 11 | 11 | 0 | +61.23% | 54.5% | 08346 (+428.3%) | 01235 (-25.4%) |
| 17 | 创升融资有限公司 | 34 | 30 | 4 | +59.97% | 67.6% | 08057 (+726.67%) | 02680 (-45.56%) |
| 18 | 铠盛资本有限公司 | 14 | 9 | 5 | +59.58% | 64.3% | 08093 (+496.36%) | 00331 (-25.09%) |
| 19 | 力高企业融资有限公司 | 25 | 23 | 2 | +57.38% | 60.0% | 08035 (+851.22%) | 03938 (-36.31%) |
| 20 | 民银资本有限公司 | 23 | 14 | 9 | +53.82% | 73.9% | 02672 (+367.95%) | 06918 (-34.78%) |
| 21 | 创侨国际有限公司 | 13 | 12 | 1 | +51.84% | 69.2% | 08121 (+300.0%) | 02448 (-17.5%) |
| 22 | 同人融资有限公司 | 23 | 23 | 0 | +45.05% | 73.9% | 08549 (+330.0%) | 01692 (-33.85%) |
| 23 | 域高融资有限公司 | 11 | 11 | 0 | +42.82% | 72.7% | 08027 (+170.0%) | 02263 (-20.0%) |
| 24 | 西证(香港)融资有限公司 | 14 | 14 | 0 | +42.68% | 71.4% | 02427 (+230.19%) | 01545 (-10.0%) |
| 25 | 德健融资有限公司 | 24 | 24 | 0 | +41.36% | 79.2% | 08321 (+700.0%) | 01937 (-36.79%) |
| 26 | 八方金融有限公司 | 7 | 6 | 1 | +39.82% | 85.7% | 01711 (+185.71%) | 01536 (-8.7%) |
| 27 | 国泰君安融资有限公司 | 103 | 62 | 41 | +37.76% | 67.0% | 08127 (+966.67%) | 02230 (-31.11%) |
| 28 | 浦银国际融资有限公司 | 13 | 5 | 8 | +34.97% | 61.5% | 01384 (+150.56%) | 02512 (-17.39%) |
| 29 | 富瑞金融集团香港有限公司 | 19 | 2 | 17 | +31.13% | 52.6% | 07666 (+126.67%) | 01228 (-26.93%) |
| 30 | 中银国际亚洲有限公司 | 53 | 20 | 33 | +27.97% | 60.4% | 02672 (+367.95%) | 01809 (-25.64%) |
僅分析參與≥5筆保薦交易的保薦人。獨家保薦 = 唯一保薦人；聯席保薦 = 多家保薦人之一。IPO保薦人負責盡職調查並將公司推向市場。保薦人過往業績不代表未來IPO表現。
承銷團銀行越多，IPO首日表現越好還是越差？分析總承銷團規模、牽頭經辦人數量、賬簿管理人數量與平均首日回報的關係。結果出人意料：小承銷團的IPO表現持續優於大承銷團。
| 承銷團規模 | IPO數量 | 平均回報 | 中位回報 | 勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 333 | +109.74% | +5.67% | 70.6% |
| 3-5 | 585 | +56.91% | +3.45% | 60.9% |
| 6-10 | 418 | +15.33% | +0.38% | 52.4% |
| 11-20 | 373 | +19.0% | +1.89% | 58.4% |
| 21+ | 78 | +34.94% | +3.48% | 65.4% |
| 承銷團規模 | IPO數量 | 平均回報 | 中位回報 | 勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 504 | +100.86% | +5.69% | 69.0% |
| 3-5 | 444 | +43.96% | +2.5% | 58.3% |
| 6-10 | 392 | +12.94% | +0.69% | 53.8% |
| 11-20 | 270 | +19.42% | +1.57% | 56.7% |
| 21+ | 118 | +18.2% | +1.08% | 60.2% |
| 承銷團規模 | IPO數量 | 平均回報 | 中位回報 | 勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 663 | +86.58% | +5.38% | 68.5% |
| 3-5 | 411 | +18.92% | +0.64% | 52.3% |
| 6-10 | 340 | +12.27% | +0.62% | 54.1% |
| 11-20 | 239 | +20.54% | +1.89% | 57.3% |
| 21+ | 91 | +18.44% | +0.95% | 59.3% |
承銷團 = 參與IPO交易的所有銀行/金融機構。牽頭經辦人負責分銷，賬簿管理人負責訂單簿和定價。規模與回報的反向關係可能源於：大承銷團 = 大型IPO = 定價充分、上漲空間有限；小承銷團 = 小盤IPO = 首日彈性更大。過往規律不代表未來表現。
超額配股權允許承銷商額外發售最多15%股份，用於價格穩定。有超額配股權的IPO首日表現有何不同？原始回報對比易受市值規模效應混淆，需按市值調整後判斷。
| 指標 | 有超額配股權 | 無超額配股權 | 差距 |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPO數量 | 213 | 217 | -4 |
| 平均回報 | 37.07% | 39.99% | -2.9% |
| 中位回報 | 7.5% | 13.65% | -6.2% |
| 勝率 | 66.2% | 71.4% | -5.2% |
| 波動率 | 76.99% | 72.2% | +4.8% |
| 平均超購 | 1495.0x | 1944.0x | -449.0x |
| 市值區間 | 有超額配股權 (#) | 有超額配股權 (%) | 無超額配股權 (#) | 無超額配股權 (%) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 小盤 (<20億) | 9 | -2.3% | 10 | 129.4% | -131.7pp |
| 中盤 (20-100億) | 44 | 95.2% | 55 | 62.7% | +32.5pp |
| 大盤 (100-500億) | 64 | 30.7% | 29 | 60.4% | -29.7pp |
| 超大盤 (>500億) | 33 | 31.2% | 2 | 22.6% | +8.6pp |
超額配股權（Greenshoe/Over-allotment Option）由發行人授予承銷商，允許其在上市後30天內按發行價額外購買最多15%的股份。其雙重作用：(1) 價格穩定——承銷商可在股價下跌時買入支撐；(2) 滿足超額需求。有超額配股權的IPO多為大規模項目，因此原始回報對比被規模效應嚴重混淆。過往規律不代表未來表現。
本頁分析港股 IPO 的發行結構與參與機構：甲乙組尾部/頭部差距、內地參與率、基石投資者與保薦人的歷史戰績、承銷團規模與綠鞋機制的影響。數據來源於港交所上市文件與配發結果公告。
