數據截至 2026-09-22 · 樣本涵蓋 2025 年及之後上市的股票
按超額認購倍數分組誤差
| 認購倍數區間 |
股票數 |
倍數中位誤差 |
| 0–10x |
16 |
1067.7% |
| 10–50x |
22 |
354.5% |
| 50–200x |
37 |
93.5% |
| 200–1000x |
42 |
84.2% |
| 1000x+ |
97 |
56.2% |
按上市年份分組誤差
| 上市年份 |
股票數 |
倍數中位誤差 |
| 2025 |
104 |
82.4% |
| 2026 |
110 |
72.6% |
逐股預測倍數誤差
| 代碼 |
名稱 |
上市 |
預測倍數 |
實際倍數 |
誤差 |
| 09856 |
納真科技 |
2026-09-22 |
15 |
35.2 |
57.3% |
| 06727 |
星環科技 |
2026-09-21 |
123 |
73.9 |
66.5% |
| 03231 |
優地機器人 |
2026-09-09 |
1221 |
140.0 |
772.0% |
| 09976 |
江波龍 |
2026-09-08 |
153 |
40.3 |
279.5% |
| 02041 |
麥科田 |
2026-09-07 |
987 |
436.4 |
126.2% |
| 00625 |
希音－Ｗ |
2026-09-01 |
33 |
5.6 |
486.1% |
| 09615 |
梅卡曼德機器人 |
2026-09-01 |
747 |
3835.4 |
80.5% |
| 03223 |
君正股份 |
2026-08-25 |
120 |
927.4 |
87.1% |
| 02261 |
拿森科技 |
2026-08-07 |
455 |
2513.5 |
81.9% |
| 03308 |
中際旭創 |
2026-07-30 |
16 |
16.8 |
5.0% |
| 02249 |
晶合集成 |
2026-07-10 |
41 |
344.3 |
88.1% |
| 06745 |
滨化股份 |
2026-07-10 |
219 |
227.6 |
3.8% |
| 00537 |
普源精電 |
2026-07-09 |
454 |
356.9 |
27.2% |
| 01377 |
鼎泰高科 |
2026-07-09 |
430 |
354.6 |
21.2% |
| 01770 |
東方科脈 |
2026-07-09 |
2830 |
1067.5 |
165.1% |
| 02475 |
立讯精密 |
2026-07-09 |
22 |
3.8 |
482.0% |
| 02797 |
齊雲山食品 |
2026-07-09 |
2450 |
1688.1 |
45.1% |
| 03752 |
珞石机器人 |
2026-07-09 |
2466 |
156.6 |
1474.9% |
| 06951 |
三环集团 |
2026-07-09 |
52 |
327.5 |
84.1% |
| 06880 |
MOMENTA-W |
2026-07-08 |
286 |
413.6 |
30.9% |
| 07656 |
瑞為技術 |
2026-07-08 |
3901 |
3646.1 |
7.0% |
| 07687 |
易控智驾 |
2026-07-08 |
657 |
157.8 |
316.3% |
| 08090 |
宝盖新材 |
2026-07-08 |
4664 |
3015.7 |
54.7% |
| 09971 |
基本半导体 |
2026-07-08 |
4420 |
4812.7 |
8.2% |
| 02667 |
同仁堂医养 |
2026-07-07 |
1511 |
2.8 |
53104.2% |
| 00668 |
安克創新 |
2026-07-02 |
146 |
27.6 |
429.6% |
| 02697 |
真健康醫療－Ｂ |
2026-06-30 |
2416 |
1790.4 |
34.9% |
| 03952 |
來福諧波 |
2026-06-30 |
5535 |
4572.0 |
21.1% |
| 06715 |
鱘龍科技 |
2026-06-30 |
1367 |
2134.8 |
36.0% |
| 06915 |
江西生物 |
2026-06-30 |
3033 |
476.6 |
536.4% |
| 01191 |
海光芯正 |
2026-06-29 |
869 |
1296.9 |
33.0% |
| 02672 |
白鴿在線 |
2026-06-29 |
2225 |
242.1 |
819.2% |
| 09637 |
禮邦醫藥－Ｂ |
2026-06-29 |
563 |
963.6 |
41.6% |
| 01688 |
领益智造 |
2026-06-26 |
104 |
96.2 |
8.2% |
| 01956 |
中科闻歌 |
2026-06-26 |
5750 |
5966.8 |
3.6% |
| 02272 |
科拓股份 |
2026-06-26 |
2330 |
2115.2 |
10.2% |
| 03661 |
圣邦股份 |
2026-06-26 |
192 |
251.7 |
23.7% |
| 06228 |
MERDEKAGOLD-DRS |
2026-06-26 |
491 |
4.4 |
11008.6% |
| 09630 |
芯碁微装 |
2026-06-26 |
373 |
1007.2 |
63.0% |
| 02335 |
麦科医药－Ｂ |
2026-06-24 |
998 |
1032.9 |
3.4% |
| 06106 |
仙工智能 |
2026-06-24 |
6841 |
5934.6 |
15.3% |
| 06067 |
星源材质 |
2026-06-23 |
860 |
1563.2 |
45.0% |
| 06132 |
华健未来－Ｂ |
2026-06-23 |
4156 |
2007.6 |
107.0% |
| 01392 |
海清智元 |
2026-06-22 |
3347 |
7181.2 |
53.4% |
| 06675 |
SENASIC |
2026-06-17 |
1660 |
5145.0 |
67.7% |
| 06658 |
溜溜梅 |
2026-06-15 |
4461 |
6586.7 |
32.3% |
| 01081 |
大金重工 |
2026-06-05 |
281 |
134.4 |
109.1% |
| 01779 |
天辰生物－Ｂ |
2026-06-05 |
1264 |
4762.6 |
73.5% |
| 02290 |
龙丰集团 |
2026-06-05 |
1645 |
664.9 |
147.4% |
| 02553 |
首鋼朗澤 |
2026-06-03 |
2502 |
1421.5 |
76.0% |
| 03388 |
創想三維 |
2026-05-29 |
2280 |
3829.4 |
40.5% |
| 00901 |
華曦達 |
2026-05-27 |
22608 |
1972.0 |
1046.5% |
| 02723 |
深演智能 |
2026-05-27 |
6713 |
5480.2 |
22.5% |
| 03310 |
雲英谷科技－Ｗ |
2026-05-27 |
4078 |
3559.7 |
14.6% |
| 06872 |
丹諾醫藥 |
2026-05-22 |
9002 |
9015.1 |
0.1% |
| 01511 |
馭勢科技 |
2026-05-20 |
9934 |
6777.3 |
46.6% |
| 07688 |
拓璞數控 |
2026-05-20 |
1859 |
3764.6 |
50.6% |
| 06871 |
翼菲科技 |
2026-05-18 |
23114 |
14855.4 |
55.6% |
| 07630 |
英派藥業 |
2026-05-13 |
4223 |
2282.4 |
85.0% |
| 07666 |
劑泰科技 |
2026-05-13 |
4514 |
6911.0 |
34.7% |
| 01236 |
樂動機器人 |
2026-05-11 |
3060 |
6707.7 |
54.4% |
| 01187 |
可孚医疗 |
2026-05-06 |
2871 |
399.1 |
619.4% |
| 01609 |
天星醫療 |
2026-05-05 |
3347 |
7823.1 |
57.2% |
| 06810 |
商米科技－Ｗ |
2026-04-29 |
2172 |
2003.2 |
8.4% |
| 01879 |
曦智科技 |
2026-04-28 |
1697 |
5784.7 |
70.7% |
| 02493 |
迈威生物－Ｂ |
2026-04-28 |
1093 |
481.7 |
126.9% |
| 03296 |
华勤技术 |
2026-04-23 |
109 |
531.3 |
79.5% |
| 02476 |
胜宏科技 |
2026-04-21 |
114 |
431.1 |
73.6% |
| 00068 |
MANYCORE TECH |
2026-04-17 |
514 |
1590.6 |
67.7% |
| 03277 |
长光辰芯 |
2026-04-17 |
322 |
1138.2 |
71.7% |
| 06656 |
思格新能 |
2026-04-17 |
863 |
1102.0 |
21.7% |
| 00664 |
铜师傅 |
2026-03-31 |
1983 |
59.5 |
3230.0% |
| 03625 |
傅里叶 |
2026-03-31 |
2740 |
3118.4 |
12.1% |
| 01021 |
華沿機器人 |
2026-03-30 |
1212 |
5059.4 |
76.0% |
| 02526 |
德适－Ｂ |
2026-03-30 |
621 |
1073.4 |
42.1% |
| 02726 |
瀚天天成 |
2026-03-30 |
272 |
50.7 |
436.9% |
| 06636 |
極視角 |
2026-03-30 |
1444 |
4591.4 |
68.5% |
| 02632 |
泽景股份 |
2026-03-24 |
789 |
68.9 |
1045.3% |
| 02729 |
凯乐士科技 |
2026-03-24 |
1097 |
2153.3 |
49.1% |
| 02701 |
国民技术 |
2026-03-23 |
252 |
131.8 |
91.2% |
| 03355 |
飞速创新 |
2026-03-23 |
459 |
1579.7 |
70.9% |
| 01989 |
广合科技 |
2026-03-20 |
141 |
1070.7 |
86.8% |
| 03268 |
美格智能 |
2026-03-10 |
328 |
174.1 |
88.4% |
| 02649 |
优乐赛共享 |
2026-03-09 |
3411 |
5297.2 |
35.6% |
| 02692 |
兆威机电 |
2026-03-09 |
285 |
1536.8 |
81.5% |
| 02715 |
埃斯顿 |
2026-03-09 |
364 |
19.7 |
1750.5% |
| 02706 |
海致科技集团 |
2026-02-13 |
1334 |
5065.1 |
73.7% |
| 09981 |
沃尔核材 |
2026-02-13 |
80 |
569.6 |
86.0% |
| 00470 |
先导智能 |
2026-02-11 |
97 |
79.5 |
22.0% |
| 00600 |
爱芯元智 |
2026-02-10 |
317 |
104.8 |
202.4% |
| 02720 |
乐欣户外 |
2026-02-10 |
4146 |
3654.2 |
13.5% |
| 06809 |
澜起科技 |
2026-02-09 |
111 |
707.3 |
84.3% |
| 02677 |
卓正医疗 |
2026-02-06 |
2246 |
2730.7 |
17.8% |
| 02714 |
牧原股份 |
2026-02-06 |
32 |
5.9 |
444.2% |
| 03200 |
大族数控 |
2026-02-06 |
135 |
446.4 |
69.8% |
| 02768 |
国恩科技 |
2026-02-04 |
309 |
2251.8 |
86.3% |
| 09980 |
东鹏饮料 |
2026-02-03 |
76 |
57.5 |
32.3% |
| 01768 |
鸣鸣很忙 |
2026-01-28 |
1042 |
1899.5 |
45.1% |
| 09611 |
龙旗科技 |
2026-01-22 |
189 |
1149.8 |
83.6% |
| 01641 |
红星冷链 |
2026-01-13 |
3067 |
2309.2 |
32.8% |
| 03986 |
兆易创新 |
2026-01-13 |
114 |
542.2 |
79.0% |
| 08610 |
BBSB International Limited |
2026-01-13 |
2422 |
10745.1 |
77.5% |
| 00501 |
豪威集团 |
2026-01-12 |
50 |
9.3 |
438.8% |
| 00100 |
MiniMax |
2026-01-09 |
162 |
1837.2 |
91.2% |
| 03636 |
金浔资源 |
2026-01-09 |
462 |
143.5 |
222.0% |
| 06938 |
瑞博生物－Ｂ |
2026-01-09 |
431 |
101.1 |
326.5% |
| 02513 |
智谱 |
2026-01-08 |
151 |
1159.5 |
87.0% |
| 02675 |
精锋医疗－Ｂ |
2026-01-08 |
139 |
1091.9 |
87.3% |
| 09903 |
天数智芯 |
2026-01-08 |
110 |
10.7 |
930.0% |
| 06082 |
壁仞科技 |
2026-01-02 |
77 |
2347.5 |
96.7% |
| 02657 |
林清軒 |
2025-12-30 |
474 |
1235.8 |
61.6% |
| 02671 |
美联股份 |
2025-12-30 |
2588 |
146.2 |
1669.6% |
| 03317 |
迅策 |
2025-12-30 |
541 |
7.2 |
7372.4% |
| 03696 |
英矽智能 |
2025-12-30 |
434 |
1427.4 |
69.6% |
| 06651 |
五一視界 |
2025-12-30 |
1702 |
256.0 |
564.8% |
| 02635 |
诺比侃 |
2025-12-23 |
1273 |
188.7 |
574.5% |
| 02661 |
轻松健康 |
2025-12-23 |
724 |
1421.5 |
49.1% |
| 03378 |
翰思艾泰－Ｂ |
2025-12-23 |
351 |
3074.1 |
88.6% |
| 02396 |
华芢生物－Ｂ |
2025-12-22 |
1888 |
792.0 |
138.4% |
| 02581 |
明基医院 |
2025-12-22 |
1326 |
6.3 |
21014.6% |
| 02691 |
南华期货股份 |
2025-12-22 |
402 |
1.9 |
20947.1% |
| 02546 |
智汇矿业 |
2025-12-19 |
1199 |
5248.1 |
77.2% |
| 03881 |
希迪智駕 |
2025-12-19 |
1173 |
22.6 |
5101.8% |
| 03887 |
HASHKEY HLDGS |
2025-12-17 |
421 |
393.7 |
6.9% |
| 02655 |
果下科技 |
2025-12-16 |
510 |
1890.7 |
73.0% |
| 07618 |
京东工业 |
2025-12-11 |
313 |
60.5 |
417.2% |
| 02659 |
宝济药业－Ｂ |
2025-12-10 |
975 |
3526.3 |
72.4% |
| 02676 |
纳芯微 |
2025-12-08 |
358 |
25.3 |
1313.3% |
| 02687 |
卓越睿新 |
2025-12-08 |
2441 |
4813.4 |
49.3% |
| 02408 |
遇见小面 |
2025-12-05 |
2097 |
426.0 |
392.3% |
| 02658 |
天域半导体 |
2025-12-05 |
1019 |
60.6 |
1580.7% |
| 02539 |
乐摩科技 |
2025-12-03 |
5109 |
7324.3 |
30.2% |
| 02693 |
金岩高岭新材 |
2025-12-03 |
2872 |
6876.2 |
58.2% |
| 09609 |
海伟股份 |
2025-11-28 |
1349 |
5426.3 |
75.1% |
| 02685 |
量化派 |
2025-11-27 |
1781 |
9366.3 |
81.0% |
| 02788 |
创新实业 |
2025-11-24 |
84 |
447.2 |
81.2% |
| 02579 |
中伟新材 |
2025-11-17 |
215 |
27.9 |
670.6% |
| 02698 |
乐舒适 |
2025-11-10 |
861 |
1813.8 |
52.5% |
| 00699 |
均胜电子 |
2025-11-06 |
383 |
147.7 |
159.4% |
| 00800 |
文远知行－Ｗ |
2025-11-06 |
1025 |
73.4 |
1295.7% |
| 02026 |
小马智行－Ｗ |
2025-11-06 |
647 |
15.9 |
3974.3% |
| 02630 |
旺山旺水－Ｂ |
2025-11-06 |
5409 |
6238.4 |
13.3% |
| 09927 |
赛力斯 |
2025-11-05 |
110 |
132.7 |
17.1% |
| 02718 |
明略科技－Ｗ |
2025-11-03 |
1952 |
4452.9 |
56.2% |
| 01384 |
滴普科技 |
2025-10-28 |
5728 |
7569.8 |
24.3% |
| 06031 |
三一重工 |
2025-10-28 |
93 |
52.9 |
75.7% |
| 06166 |
剑桥科技 |
2025-10-28 |
136 |
338.7 |
59.8% |
| 06980 |
八马茶业 |
2025-10-28 |
4735 |
2680.0 |
76.7% |
| 00638 |
广和通 |
2025-10-22 |
312 |
551.0 |
43.4% |
| 06687 |
聚水潭 |
2025-10-21 |
876 |
1953.0 |
55.1% |
| 02637 |
海西新药 |
2025-10-20 |
2172 |
3165.1 |
31.4% |
| 02670 |
云迹 |
2025-10-16 |
11253 |
5657.2 |
98.9% |
| 02575 |
轩竹生物－Ｂ |
2025-10-15 |
2574 |
4908.3 |
47.6% |
| 02650 |
挚达科技 |
2025-10-10 |
2302 |
5440.8 |
57.7% |
| 08549 |
金叶国际集团 |
2025-10-09 |
20341 |
11464.7 |
77.4% |
| 02652 |
长风药业 |
2025-10-08 |
4701 |
6697.8 |
29.8% |
| 02259 |
紫金黄金国际 |
2025-09-30 |
118 |
240.7 |
51.0% |
| 02889 |
博泰车联 |
2025-09-29 |
1154 |
529.8 |
117.8% |
| 09973 |
奇瑞汽车 |
2025-09-25 |
153 |
308.2 |
50.4% |
| 06090 |
不同集团 |
2025-09-23 |
3744 |
3317.5 |
12.9% |
| 02595 |
劲方医药－Ｂ |
2025-09-19 |
1886 |
2662.8 |
29.2% |
| 02656 |
健康160 |
2025-09-17 |
2934 |
751.8 |
290.3% |
| 02525 |
禾赛－Ｗ |
2025-09-16 |
849 |
168.7 |
403.4% |
| 02543 |
大行科工 |
2025-09-09 |
7404 |
7558.4 |
2.0% |
| 03858 |
佳鑫国际资源 |
2025-08-28 |
2259 |
2041.6 |
10.6% |
| 06960 |
双登股份 |
2025-08-26 |
243 |
3876.2 |
93.7% |
| 02631 |
天岳先进 |
2025-08-20 |
189 |
2809.2 |
93.3% |
| 02591 |
银诺医药－Ｂ |
2025-08-15 |
184 |
5341.7 |
96.6% |
| 02627 |
中慧生物－Ｂ |
2025-08-11 |
217 |
4007.6 |
94.6% |
| 09887 |
维立志博－Ｂ |
2025-07-25 |
126 |
3494.8 |
96.4% |
| 01304 |
FORTIOR |
2025-07-09 |
48 |
138.3 |
65.3% |
| 02590 |
极智嘉－Ｗ |
2025-07-09 |
22 |
133.6 |
83.5% |
| 02597 |
讯众通信 |
2025-07-09 |
553 |
12.8 |
4223.7% |
| 06613 |
蓝思科技 |
2025-07-09 |
57 |
462.8 |
87.7% |
| 01828 |
富卫集团 |
2025-07-07 |
29 |
37.1 |
21.9% |
| 02648 |
安井食品 |
2025-07-04 |
44 |
44.2 |
0.5% |
| 02592 |
拨康视云－Ｂ |
2025-07-03 |
51 |
78.8 |
35.3% |
| 03880 |
泰德医药 |
2025-06-30 |
86 |
301.1 |
71.4% |
| 09678 |
云知声 |
2025-06-30 |
158 |
91.7 |
72.4% |
| 02508 |
圣贝拉 |
2025-06-26 |
73 |
193 |
62.2% |
| 06883 |
颖通控股 |
2025-06-26 |
201 |
35.8 |
460.8% |
| 02619 |
香江电器 |
2025-06-25 |
839 |
852.4 |
1.6% |
| 02643 |
曹操出行 |
2025-06-25 |
54 |
21.1 |
155.4% |
| 02609 |
佰泽医疗 |
2025-06-23 |
536 |
25.9 |
1967.9% |
| 03288 |
海天味业 |
2025-06-19 |
37 |
918.1 |
96.0% |
| 02605 |
METALIGHT |
2025-06-10 |
444 |
274.4 |
61.8% |
| 09881 |
容大科技 |
2025-06-10 |
2379 |
276.0 |
762.1% |
| 02621 |
手回集团 |
2025-05-30 |
3385 |
990 |
241.9% |
| 02565 |
派格生物医药－Ｂ |
2025-05-27 |
845 |
743.8 |
13.6% |
| 02603 |
吉宏股份 |
2025-05-27 |
606 |
49.4 |
1127.0% |
| 01276 |
恒瑞医药 |
2025-05-23 |
11 |
454.9 |
97.6% |
| 02629 |
MIRXES-B |
2025-05-23 |
64 |
25.5 |
150.9% |
| 03750 |
宁德时代 |
2025-05-20 |
7 |
15.2 |
53.9% |
| 06831 |
绿茶集团 |
2025-05-16 |
2 |
317.5 |
99.4% |
| 02589 |
沪上阿姨 |
2025-05-08 |
7 |
3616.8 |
99.8% |
| 02865 |
钧达股份 |
2025-05-08 |
37 |
3.5 |
957.1% |
| 01333 |
博雷顿 |
2025-05-07 |
13 |
198.7 |
93.5% |
| 09606 |
映恩生物－Ｂ |
2025-04-15 |
8 |
115.1 |
93.1% |
| 03677 |
正力新能 |
2025-04-14 |
56 |
3.5 |
1495.4% |
| 02625 |
江苏宏信 |
2025-03-31 |
58 |
47.0 |
23.5% |
| 02569 |
舒宝国际 |
2025-03-27 |
203 |
167.1 |
21.5% |
| 02610 |
南山铝业国际 |
2025-03-25 |
15 |
3.9 |
285.6% |
| 02561 |
维升药业－Ｂ |
2025-03-21 |
18 |
72.6 |
75.2% |
| 06693 |
赤峰黄金 |
2025-03-10 |
21 |
9.5 |
120.4% |
| 02097 |
蜜雪集团 |
2025-03-03 |
15 |
5258.2 |
99.7% |
| 01364 |
古茗 |
2025-02-12 |
7 |
194.9 |
96.4% |
| 02571 |
赛目科技 |
2025-01-15 |
34 |
2.7 |
1178.2% |
| 00805 |
新吉奥房车 |
2025-01-13 |
1 |
2.5 |
60.3% |
| 02596 |
宜宾银行 |
2025-01-13 |
9 |
0.2 |
4185.7% |
| 00325 |
布鲁可 |
2025-01-10 |
5 |
6000.0 |
99.9% |
| 02530 |
纽曼思 |
2025-01-10 |
16 |
65.2 |
75.4% |
| 02560 |
海螺材料科技 |
2025-01-09 |
9 |
25.8 |
65.2% |
| 02613 |
汇舸环保 |
2025-01-09 |
4 |
55.3 |
92.8% |
| 06681 |
脑动极光－Ｂ |
2025-01-08 |
18 |
11.4 |
58.0% |
計算口徑
- 回測採用時間外推（walk-forward）：對每隻股票，僅用其上市日之前已上市的股票錨定市場環境（參與人數、人均手數、指數、保薦人熱度、首日盈虧）並校準超購倍數水平；回歸係數與線上預測一致，基於全量歷史一次性擬合。
- 嚴格樣本外校驗：改為逐股重擬合（每隻股票的回歸係數僅用其上市前樣本擬合，而非全量一次性擬合），244 隻股票的中位對數誤差為 0.565（約 3.7 倍），與線上全量擬合的 0.568 僅差 0.003，確認無顯著前視偏差或樣本內過擬合。
關於本頁
本頁公開 cibo 超額認購倍數預測的回測結果：以時間外推（walk-forward）方式，對 214 隻已上市港股 IPO 逐一只用其上市日前可見的數據預測超額認購倍數，並與實際倍數對比。頁面展示倍數的中位相對誤差與 P90 誤差、按認購倍數分檔與按上市年份的誤差，以及逐股的預測與實際倍數。數據來自 prediction_history 表，樣本覆蓋 2025 年及之後上市的股票。
Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析
