Dtech 01377Expected Lots

Dtech (01377) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$38,000  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 6,316lots / Pool B 6,316lots  |  Offer Price: HK$380.00  |  Lot Size: 100shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$480.0M
1x2083.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
16,274
→
Avg lots
17.1
→
Oversubscription
22x
22x = 16,274 × 17.1 ÷ 12,632 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 27.8% margin-weighted 100% → 252.7x
Margin dynamics · 2026-07-06 16:19 Margin multiple188.6x Margin funds905.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple252.72x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 468.3100M
2 辉立证券辉立 300.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 57.0100M
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0100M
5 信诚证券信诚 10.0100M
6 致富证券致富 8.9100M
7 华盛证券华盛 6.0100M
8 盈立证券盈立 5.9100M
9 复星国际复星 5.4100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:27:40+08:000.0004791467022207408
2026-06-30T10:27:48+08:000.006228907128869631
2026-06-30T11:17:28+08:000.009416274321903255
2026-06-30T11:17:34+08:000.030207074705220615
2026-06-30T11:17:40+08:000.036873463605683096
2026-06-30T11:17:52+08:000.14520228323819842
2026-06-30T12:14:27+08:000.14824382317403442
2026-06-30T12:19:06+08:000.19317945085621432
2026-06-30T12:21:31+08:000.2012207824673972
2026-06-30T12:24:09+08:000.20305403941502437
2026-06-30T12:26:53+08:000.9488562976542644
2026-06-30T14:04:09+08:000.9528561309945419
2026-06-30T14:04:13+08:000.9547727178034249
2026-06-30T14:07:33+08:000.9573559435023541
2026-06-30T14:07:37+08:000.9768967959668348
2026-06-30T14:14:50+08:000.9957710095412691
2026-06-30T14:14:53+08:001.0291237865088954
2026-06-30T14:16:09+08:001.0389775426023915
2026-06-30T14:16:11+08:001.041123286529728
2026-06-30T14:20:13+08:001.4848547977167619
2026-06-30T14:20:16+08:001.5494354401899921
2026-06-30T14:24:42+08:001.5661014124411483
2026-06-30T14:30:22+08:001.6017249281279946
2026-06-30T15:03:37+08:001.6151618682554894
2026-06-30T15:05:55+08:001.6422649056289322
2026-06-30T15:09:12+08:001.646139744177326
2026-06-30T15:10:21+08:002.0252906128911294
2026-06-30T15:17:00+08:002.031290362901546
2026-06-30T15:20:25+08:002.052122828215491
2026-06-30T16:29:06+08:002.0991417024290655
2026-06-30T16:32:54+08:002.611537019290863
2026-06-30T16:37:12+08:002.6143910670388735
2026-06-30T16:39:55+08:002.628557143452356
2026-06-30T16:41:39+08:002.8368817965918085
2026-06-30T17:06:56+08:002.8360693304445648
2026-06-30T17:08:26+08:002.8510270405399774
2026-06-30T17:11:20+08:002.8613391108703805
2026-06-30T17:14:57+08:002.8624223990667055
2026-06-30T17:17:47+08:002.9770009582934045
2026-06-30T17:48:05+08:003.7269697095954335
2026-06-30T18:06:18+08:003.87665097287613
2026-06-30T18:12:32+08:003.9141702429065455
2026-06-30T18:17:44+08:003.921211616182659
2026-06-30T18:20:57+08:003.948314653556102
2026-06-30T18:24:55+08:003.949460439148369
2026-06-30T18:25:45+08:004.145285613099454
2026-06-30T18:27:15+08:004.166118078413399
2026-06-30T20:08:56+08:004.175534352735303
2026-06-30T20:12:26+08:004.17815924336486
2026-06-30T20:15:33+08:004.202408232990292
2026-06-30T20:17:10+08:004.24976042664889
2026-06-30T20:19:20+08:004.724740635806842
2026-06-30T21:59:25+08:004.726469730427898
2026-06-30T22:08:34+08:004.792987792175326
2026-06-30T22:10:50+08:005.047143869005458
2026-07-01T08:44:11+08:005.084079830007083
2026-07-01T08:44:16+08:004.735302695721011
2026-07-01T08:58:12+08:005.587350527061372
2026-07-01T09:02:12+08:005.587350527061372
2026-07-01T09:05:37+08:005.633098620890796
2026-07-01T09:12:38+08:005.637890087913004
2026-07-01T09:13:59+08:005.65455606016416
2026-07-01T09:18:17+08:005.67420107495521
2026-07-01T09:24:09+08:005.855047706345569
2026-07-01T10:18:17+08:005.856568476313487
2026-07-01T10:22:09+08:005.865693096120995
2026-07-01T10:26:29+08:005.986521394941877
2026-07-01T10:28:20+08:005.989687929669597
2026-07-01T11:09:06+08:005.9902504062330735
2026-07-01T11:10:30+08:006.008624640639973
2026-07-01T11:13:33+08:006.00997875088538
2026-07-01T11:16:09+08:006.010728719636682
2026-07-01T11:20:11+08:006.121140785800591
2026-07-01T12:13:46+08:006.132098662555727
2026-07-01T12:18:09+08:006.135202699887505
2026-07-01T12:19:40+08:006.135181867422191
2026-07-01T12:21:08+08:006.149764593141953
2026-07-01T14:10:57+08:006.14209824590642
2026-07-01T14:11:00+08:006.142494062747385
2026-07-01T14:15:15+08:006.129702929044623
2026-07-01T14:15:17+08:006.144348152160327
2026-07-01T14:18:50+08:006.198512561976584
2026-07-01T14:18:52+08:006.2880921628265485
2026-07-01T14:25:20+08:006.288258822549061
2026-07-01T14:25:22+08:006.29005041456606
2026-07-01T14:31:05+08:006.334319403358194
2026-07-01T15:09:46+08:006.343589850422899
2026-07-01T15:12:57+08:006.378692554476896
2026-07-01T15:18:04+08:006.383734011082872
2026-07-01T15:19:53+08:006.442064913961918
2026-07-01T16:14:56+08:006.442544060664139
2026-07-01T16:18:03+08:006.522499062539061
2026-07-01T16:22:09+08:006.637077621765759
2026-07-01T16:23:34+08:006.637619265863922
2026-07-01T17:03:51+08:006.638994208574642
2026-07-01T17:06:33+08:006.6565768092996125
2026-07-01T17:10:57+08:006.762822382400733
2026-07-01T17:12:39+08:006.777092621140786
2026-07-01T18:02:33+08:006.777571767843007
2026-07-01T18:04:32+08:006.788196325153119
2026-07-01T18:08:25+08:006.827694679388359
2026-07-01T18:09:57+08:006.988104662305737
2026-07-01T18:18:46+08:007.590142077413441
2026-07-01T20:58:20+08:007.609182950710387
2026-07-01T21:00:04+08:007.6094954376900965
2026-07-01T21:02:01+08:007.803237365109787
2026-07-01T21:04:13+08:007.820882463230698
2026-07-01T22:05:38+08:007.820819965834757
2026-07-01T22:10:10+08:007.896545977250948
2026-07-01T22:14:53+08:007.571559518353402
2026-07-02T08:43:55+08:007.62176575976001
2026-07-02T08:43:57+08:007.730511228698804
2026-07-02T08:52:19+08:009.207533019457523
2026-07-02T08:58:47+08:009.207533019457523
2026-07-02T09:00:50+08:009.253364443148202
2026-07-02T09:13:08+08:009.256405983084038
2026-07-02T09:19:01+08:009.296633473605267
2026-07-02T09:26:54+08:009.419524186492229
2026-07-02T09:29:51+08:009.47877171784509
2026-07-02T09:33:14+08:009.495437690096246
2026-07-02T09:51:32+08:009.324465647264697
2026-07-02T10:14:24+08:009.506062247406359
2026-07-02T10:16:58+08:009.509645431440356
2026-07-02T10:19:17+08:009.511395358526729
2026-07-02T10:21:48+08:009.514791050372901
2026-07-02T10:25:43+08:009.775196866797216
2026-07-02T11:09:57+08:009.782467397191784
2026-07-02T11:14:07+08:009.871547018874214
2026-07-02T11:15:18+08:0010.198616724303154
2026-07-02T11:17:03+08:0010.200616640973292
2026-07-02T11:18:38+08:0010.206741385775592
2026-07-02T12:11:43+08:0010.208428815466021
2026-07-02T12:16:58+08:0010.290696220990792
2026-07-02T12:20:11+08:0010.316674305237282
2026-07-02T12:21:45+08:0010.722907378859214
2026-07-02T12:24:05+08:0010.73761509937086
2026-07-02T13:43:29+08:0010.810528727969668
2026-07-02T14:08:40+08:0010.813486938044248
2026-07-02T14:08:42+08:0010.813966084746468
2026-07-02T14:12:54+08:0011.113995250197908
2026-07-02T14:12:56+08:0011.202512395316862
2026-07-02T14:18:53+08:0011.211657847589684
2026-07-02T14:18:55+08:0011.214741052456148
2026-07-02T14:21:14+08:0011.223324028165493
2026-07-02T14:21:16+08:0011.58997541769093
2026-07-02T14:21:19+08:0011.597204283154868
2026-07-02T14:21:22+08:0011.89719178367568
2026-07-02T14:36:39+08:0012.478959210032915
2026-07-02T15:01:17+08:0012.481188283821508
2026-07-02T15:03:50+08:0012.501520769967918
2026-07-02T15:06:42+08:0012.558601724928128
2026-07-02T15:12:08+08:0012.5619974167743
2026-07-02T15:13:24+08:0013.02656139327528
2026-07-02T16:05:18+08:0013.354901879088372
2026-07-02T16:07:38+08:0013.354756051831174
2026-07-02T16:10:29+08:0013.370067913836923
2026-07-02T16:11:58+08:0014.055456022665723
2026-07-02T16:14:24+08:0014.066768051331195
2026-07-02T17:04:28+08:0014.118245073121953
2026-07-02T17:06:25+08:0014.134786050581226
2026-07-02T17:08:49+08:0014.1774717720095
2026-07-02T17:11:23+08:0014.184013166118078
2026-07-02T17:14:27+08:0014.994396066830548
2026-07-02T17:15:37+08:0015.015228532144494
2026-07-02T18:10:17+08:0015.16274321903254
2026-07-02T18:17:39+08:0015.187950502062414
2026-07-02T18:19:29+08:0015.198533394441899
2026-07-02T18:21:29+08:0015.32009082954877
2026-07-02T18:22:29+08:0015.336652639473355
2026-07-02T18:24:11+08:0015.55539352526978
2026-07-02T18:27:00+08:0020.221865755593516
2026-07-02T20:41:55+08:0020.2237823424024
2026-07-02T20:44:15+08:0020.257510103745677
2026-07-02T20:46:45+08:0020.289508770467897
2026-07-02T20:49:45+08:0020.472771967834674
2026-07-02T20:51:59+08:0021.362318236740137
2026-07-02T21:50:41+08:0021.378380067497186
2026-07-02T22:07:01+08:0021.41714928544644
2026-07-02T22:09:55+08:0021.869567934669387
2026-07-02T22:12:07+08:0023.2340944127328
2026-07-03T08:39:57+08:0023.673180284154828
2026-07-03T08:40:01+08:0024.385879755010208
2026-07-03T08:46:04+08:0024.385879755010208
2026-07-03T08:48:32+08:0027.883650681221617
2026-07-03T09:01:31+08:0028.091975334361067
2026-07-03T09:02:23+08:0028.18201324944794
2026-07-03T09:06:58+08:0028.368734636056832
2026-07-03T09:10:03+08:0028.558955876838464
2026-07-03T09:12:38+08:0028.758760051664513
2026-07-03T09:14:40+08:0029.004583142369068
2026-07-03T09:19:17+08:0029.51620765801425
2026-07-03T10:16:35+08:0029.554268572142828
2026-07-03T10:17:50+08:0029.56268488812966
2026-07-03T10:20:33+08:0031.03970667888838
2026-07-03T10:27:15+08:0031.068413816090995
2026-07-03T10:30:06+08:0031.097829257114288
2026-07-03T11:12:53+08:0031.136035998500063
2026-07-03T11:14:02+08:0031.149785425607266
2026-07-03T11:16:19+08:0031.397691762843216
2026-07-03T11:18:21+08:0031.407774676055165
2026-07-03T11:19:16+08:0031.417399275030206
2026-07-03T12:28:29+08:0031.540706637223447
2026-07-03T12:30:12+08:0031.570413732761136
2026-07-03T12:31:00+08:0031.98289654597725
2026-07-03T12:32:57+08:0032.0147910503729
2026-07-03T12:34:49+08:0032.03018624223991
2026-07-03T13:40:26+08:0032.049768759635015
2026-07-03T13:42:04+08:0032.050497895921005
2026-07-03T13:43:34+08:0032.265072288654636
2026-07-03T13:44:36+08:0032.2709887088038
2026-07-03T13:45:47+08:0032.280425815591016
2026-07-03T14:01:04+08:0032.29273780259156
2026-07-03T14:03:20+08:0032.40571226198908
2026-07-03T14:07:31+08:0032.60970376234324
2026-07-03T14:09:13+08:0032.607662180742466
2026-07-03T14:10:47+08:0032.87223449022957
2026-07-03T14:13:09+08:0032.88465063955668
2026-07-03T15:19:51+08:0032.906233073621934
2026-07-03T15:21:21+08:0032.936523478188406
2026-07-03T15:22:09+08:0033.33650681221616
2026-07-03T15:24:53+08:0033.3476313486938
2026-07-03T15:25:36+08:0033.35481854922712
2026-07-03T16:04:32+08:0033.42423232365318
2026-07-03T16:06:04+08:0033.42983625682263
2026-07-03T16:06:41+08:0033.9006499729178
2026-07-03T16:07:40+08:0033.93000291654514
2026-07-03T16:09:13+08:0033.943939835840176
2026-07-03T17:09:19+08:0034.022457397608434
2026-07-03T17:10:43+08:0034.10080829965418
2026-07-03T17:12:57+08:0034.108849631265365
2026-07-03T17:13:38+08:0034.152097829257116
2026-07-03T17:15:31+08:0034.61041206616391
2026-07-03T17:18:06+08:0036.67282613224449
2026-07-03T18:32:48+08:0047.922357401774924
2026-07-03T18:33:45+08:0048.06818465897254
2026-07-03T18:34:21+08:0048.11991167034707
2026-07-03T18:37:59+08:0048.06614307737178
2026-07-03T18:39:13+08:0048.088850464563976
2026-07-03T18:40:25+08:0048.24213574434398
2026-07-03T18:43:11+08:0048.62753635265197
2026-07-03T18:48:12+08:0048.90081663264031
2026-07-03T21:05:23+08:0048.93360693304446
2026-07-03T21:06:41+08:0048.99675013541103
2026-07-03T21:09:19+08:0049.05056039331694
2026-07-03T21:12:28+08:0049.26959293362776
2026-07-03T21:14:32+08:0049.68624223990667
2026-07-03T21:15:19+08:0050.64453564434815
2026-07-04T09:35:08+08:0050.64453564434815
2026-07-04T09:36:37+08:0050.71776175992667
2026-07-04T09:37:44+08:0050.75451022874047
2026-07-04T09:39:58+08:0050.940981625765595
2026-07-04T09:41:32+08:0051.012457814257736
2026-07-04T09:42:53+08:0052.5498937544269
2026-07-04T09:43:35+08:0052.74988542144077
2026-07-04T10:26:59+08:0052.75478105078955
2026-07-04T10:27:48+08:0052.765780592475316
2026-07-04T10:29:46+08:0052.80494562726553
2026-07-04T10:30:54+08:0052.80679971667847
2026-07-04T10:32:02+08:0052.92137827590517
2026-07-04T12:02:54+08:0052.93914836881797
2026-07-04T12:10:31+08:0052.94121078288405
2026-07-04T12:11:58+08:0053.04668555476855
2026-07-04T12:13:58+08:0053.286258905878924
2026-07-04T12:14:19+08:0053.53624848964626
2026-07-04T15:36:40+08:0053.54464397316779
2026-07-04T15:38:11+08:0053.555143535686014
2026-07-04T15:39:37+08:0053.60703720678305
2026-07-04T15:40:32+08:0053.622869880421646
2026-07-04T15:42:17+08:0053.893691929502936
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2026-07-04T18:35:25+08:0054.461001624932294
2026-07-04T18:37:31+08:0054.58462147410525
2026-07-04T18:38:58+08:0054.58339235865172
2026-07-04T18:39:57+08:0054.61266197241782
2026-07-04T18:41:10+08:0054.94598141744094
2026-07-04T18:41:36+08:0055.11055789342111
2026-07-04T20:04:03+08:0055.11432856964293
2026-07-04T20:06:11+08:0055.12370317903421
2026-07-04T20:07:13+08:0055.1238490062914
2026-07-04T20:07:46+08:0055.2112411982834
2026-07-04T20:08:58+08:0055.64455647681346
2026-07-04T21:33:52+08:0055.64691054539394
2026-07-04T21:34:49+08:0055.63855672680305
2026-07-04T21:35:35+08:0055.66655556018499
2026-07-04T21:36:37+08:0055.84154826882213
2026-07-05T09:31:52+08:0055.86050581225782
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2026-07-05T09:32:01+08:0055.95102287404691
2026-07-05T09:32:05+08:0055.97420940794134
2026-07-05T09:40:43+08:0056.01589517103454
2026-07-05T09:44:42+08:0056.0377900920795
2026-07-05T09:47:22+08:0056.248197991750345
2026-07-05T09:47:54+08:0057.2544060664139
2026-07-05T09:48:25+08:0057.54189408774634
2026-07-05T09:53:53+08:0057.55089371276197
2026-07-05T09:54:28+08:0057.578850881213285
2026-07-05T12:19:39+08:0057.93091954501896
2026-07-05T12:20:26+08:0058.3704845631432
2026-07-05T12:21:04+08:0058.93504437315112
2026-07-05T12:23:13+08:0058.948002166576394
2026-07-05T12:23:53+08:0058.95791842006583
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.47
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.57
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 354.64x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.474, Pool B α=0.574) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoDtech Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
252.7x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.47

Pool B

Oversubscription
252.7x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.57
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Dtech (01377): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect