Dke 01770Expected Lots

Dke (01770) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$3,932  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 5,119lots / Pool B 5,119lots  |  Offer Price: HK$78.64  |  Lot Size: 50shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$40.3M
1x24841.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
20,555
→
Avg lots
70.4
→
Oversubscription
141x
141x = 20,555 × 70.4 ÷ 10,238 margin-weighted 100% → 562.5x
Margin dynamics · 2026-07-03 11:20 Margin multiple419.8x Margin funds217.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple562.54x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 127.5100M
2 辉立证券辉立 52.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 16.3100M
4 华泰国际华泰 8.6100M
5 盈立证券盈立 2.7100M
6 致富证券致富 2.4100M
7 复星国际复星 2.4100M
8 华盛证券华盛 1.6100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 1.5100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:09:46+08:000.06530139103554869
2026-06-29T10:09:58+08:000.09659969088098919
2026-06-29T10:10:04+08:000.10374806800618239
2026-06-29T11:01:37+08:000.23976043276661516
2026-06-29T11:04:38+08:000.2581143740340031
2026-06-29T11:05:28+08:000.330177743431221
2026-06-29T11:07:11+08:000.5426970633693973
2026-06-29T11:41:46+08:000.6006568778979907
2026-06-29T12:14:56+08:000.6327279752704791
2026-06-29T12:15:55+08:000.6671174652241113
2026-06-29T12:16:37+08:000.6957109737248841
2026-06-29T12:17:48+08:000.7192812982998454
2026-06-29T12:18:27+08:000.7221792890262752
2026-06-29T12:19:05+08:001.456336939721793
2026-06-29T13:41:22+08:001.4758500772797527
2026-06-29T13:42:54+08:001.562982998454405
2026-06-29T13:43:17+08:001.5660741885625966
2026-06-29T13:44:12+08:001.58887171561051
2026-06-29T13:44:49+08:001.6043276661514683
2026-06-29T13:45:43+08:002.4157650695517776
2026-06-29T14:01:49+08:002.4418469860896446
2026-06-29T14:05:13+08:002.457496136012365
2026-06-29T14:05:40+08:002.4619397217928904
2026-06-29T14:07:19+08:002.4748840803709427
2026-06-29T14:07:43+08:002.475270479134467
2026-06-29T14:08:35+08:002.6684698608964452
2026-06-29T14:10:30+08:003.1107032457496135
2026-06-29T15:00:23+08:003.1296367851622873
2026-06-29T15:01:35+08:003.144899536321484
2026-06-29T15:04:31+08:003.1493431221020094
2026-06-29T15:05:55+08:003.2040185471406493
2026-06-29T15:06:17+08:003.211360123647604
2026-06-29T15:07:02+08:003.4625193199381763
2026-06-29T16:01:36+08:003.687789799072643
2026-06-29T16:03:14+08:003.7181221020092736
2026-06-29T16:04:41+08:003.7472952086553324
2026-06-29T16:09:23+08:003.7702859350850075
2026-06-29T16:11:53+08:003.8475656877897992
2026-06-29T16:12:26+08:003.9008887171561053
2026-06-29T17:08:09+08:003.954404945904173
2026-06-29T17:08:52+08:004.308732612055642
2026-06-29T17:10:15+08:004.357032457496136
2026-06-29T17:10:39+08:004.3402241112828435
2026-06-29T17:11:32+08:004.3268933539412675
2026-06-29T17:12:17+08:005.466769706336939
2026-06-29T18:00:32+08:008.944358578052551
2026-06-29T18:02:51+08:009.04965224111283
2026-06-29T18:04:26+08:009.140842349304481
2026-06-29T18:05:16+08:009.188176197836167
2026-06-29T18:06:25+08:009.228554868624421
2026-06-29T18:08:00+08:009.250772797527048
2026-06-29T18:08:48+08:009.926970633693973
2026-06-29T18:10:20+08:0011.706530139103554
2026-06-29T20:27:53+08:0011.852782071097373
2026-06-29T20:29:00+08:0011.914605873261205
2026-06-29T20:29:43+08:0011.941074188562597
2026-06-29T20:30:46+08:0011.966383307573416
2026-06-29T20:37:43+08:0012.472179289026275
2026-06-29T20:41:37+08:0012.839258114374035
2026-06-29T21:09:22+08:0012.846986089644513
2026-06-29T22:06:48+08:0012.853361669242659
2026-06-29T22:07:56+08:0012.819938176197835
2026-06-29T22:09:00+08:0012.830757341576508
2026-06-29T22:09:46+08:0013.719474497681608
2026-06-30T09:05:02+08:0013.738214837712519
2026-06-30T09:05:06+08:0013.793083462132921
2026-06-30T09:05:09+08:0013.807187017001546
2026-06-30T09:08:49+08:0013.915765069551778
2026-06-30T09:09:46+08:0014.057766615146832
2026-06-30T09:09:59+08:0014.313562596599692
2026-06-30T09:10:06+08:0014.36031684698609
2026-06-30T09:14:35+08:0017.084428129829984
2026-06-30T09:14:39+08:0017.15823029366306
2026-06-30T09:14:42+08:0017.81510819165379
2026-06-30T09:16:14+08:0018.0274343122102
2026-06-30T09:17:23+08:0018.0274343122102
2026-06-30T10:20:27+08:0018.085200927357032
2026-06-30T10:20:33+08:0018.111282843894898
2026-06-30T10:20:51+08:0018.1717542503864
2026-06-30T10:20:57+08:0018.264489953632147
2026-06-30T10:21:09+08:0018.267967542503865
2026-06-30T10:21:15+08:0018.94416537867079
2026-06-30T11:10:01+08:0018.96078052550232
2026-06-30T11:10:21+08:0018.997488408037093
2026-06-30T11:10:57+08:0019.06510819165379
2026-06-30T11:11:03+08:0019.107805255023184
2026-06-30T11:11:16+08:0019.11031684698609
2026-06-30T11:11:21+08:0020.327472952086552
2026-06-30T12:14:06+08:0020.44532457496136
2026-06-30T12:18:45+08:0020.61611282843895
2026-06-30T12:19:46+08:0020.621522411128286
2026-06-30T12:21:34+08:0020.887364760432767
2026-06-30T12:24:30+08:0020.916537867078826
2026-06-30T12:27:14+08:0022.346213292117465
2026-06-30T14:02:48+08:0022.438176197836167
2026-06-30T14:02:51+08:0022.46773570324575
2026-06-30T14:08:48+08:0022.477975270479135
2026-06-30T14:08:51+08:0022.485896445131374
2026-06-30T14:12:43+08:0022.514103554868626
2026-06-30T14:12:46+08:0022.545208655332303
2026-06-30T14:15:30+08:0022.579404945904173
2026-06-30T14:15:46+08:0022.57148377125193
2026-06-30T14:16:50+08:0022.854134466769708
2026-06-30T14:16:53+08:0022.903786707882535
2026-06-30T14:18:59+08:0024.00502318392581
2026-06-30T14:19:01+08:0024.430061823802163
2026-06-30T14:27:46+08:0025.396058732612055
2026-06-30T15:03:57+08:0025.49613601236476
2026-06-30T15:06:14+08:0025.59370170015456
2026-06-30T15:06:43+08:0025.594281298299844
2026-06-30T15:08:42+08:0025.616885625965995
2026-06-30T15:10:42+08:0026.02260432766615
2026-06-30T15:17:25+08:0026.029559505409583
2026-06-30T16:28:43+08:0026.160355486862443
2026-06-30T16:32:34+08:0026.193972179289027
2026-06-30T16:34:49+08:0026.304289026275114
2026-06-30T16:37:21+08:0026.312982998454405
2026-06-30T16:40:08+08:0026.314142194744978
2026-06-30T16:41:15+08:0026.54598145285935
2026-06-30T17:06:35+08:0026.55680061823802
2026-06-30T17:08:20+08:0026.521251931993817
2026-06-30T17:11:42+08:0026.632148377125194
2026-06-30T17:12:47+08:0026.638717156105102
2026-06-30T17:14:27+08:0026.73435085007728
2026-06-30T17:17:24+08:0027.062789799072643
2026-06-30T17:48:55+08:0028.028786707882535
2026-06-30T18:02:45+08:0029.033423493044822
2026-06-30T18:11:54+08:0028.951313755795983
2026-06-30T18:17:39+08:0028.978168469860897
2026-06-30T18:19:14+08:0028.980293663060277
2026-06-30T18:20:26+08:0028.88852395672334
2026-06-30T18:24:03+08:0028.90726429675425
2026-06-30T18:25:19+08:0029.312982998454405
2026-06-30T20:08:19+08:0029.315880989180833
2026-06-30T20:10:39+08:0029.335394126738795
2026-06-30T20:13:34+08:0029.423299845440493
2026-06-30T20:14:38+08:0029.45112055641422
2026-06-30T20:16:38+08:0029.45691653786708
2026-06-30T20:18:47+08:0030.191074188562595
2026-06-30T21:59:48+08:0030.22836166924266
2026-06-30T22:04:36+08:0030.241692426584233
2026-06-30T22:06:27+08:0030.248454404945903
2026-06-30T22:08:02+08:0030.44744976816074
2026-06-30T22:10:20+08:0031.374806800618238
2026-07-01T08:43:39+08:0031.387171561051005
2026-07-01T08:43:43+08:0031.68566460587326
2026-07-01T08:46:28+08:0031.69416537867079
2026-07-01T08:46:33+08:0031.800231839258114
2026-07-01T08:57:08+08:0034.27318392581144
2026-07-01T09:01:09+08:0034.27318392581144
2026-07-01T09:05:57+08:0034.523956723338486
2026-07-01T09:08:09+08:0034.52144513137558
2026-07-01T09:10:11+08:0034.65938948995363
2026-07-01T09:12:58+08:0034.662287480680064
2026-07-01T09:14:10+08:0034.894126738794434
2026-07-01T09:18:25+08:0034.975270479134466
2026-07-01T09:19:54+08:0035.07187017001546
2026-07-01T09:21:21+08:0035.3185857805255
2026-07-01T10:17:58+08:0035.46483771251932
2026-07-01T10:21:50+08:0035.59389489953632
2026-07-01T10:23:32+08:0035.597372488408034
2026-07-01T10:24:34+08:0035.60625965996909
2026-07-01T10:26:05+08:0036.900695517774345
2026-07-01T10:28:17+08:0036.90378670788253
2026-07-01T11:08:48+08:0036.832302936630605
2026-07-01T11:10:10+08:0036.845826893353944
2026-07-01T11:11:40+08:0036.850270479134466
2026-07-01T11:13:06+08:0036.94319938176198
2026-07-01T11:16:03+08:0036.961553323029364
2026-07-01T11:19:50+08:0037.86959041731066
2026-07-01T12:13:24+08:0037.876352395672335
2026-07-01T12:15:04+08:0037.89547913446677
2026-07-01T12:17:50+08:0037.971020092735706
2026-07-01T12:19:51+08:0037.990726429675426
2026-07-01T12:21:45+08:0038.415765069551775
2026-07-01T14:09:48+08:0038.42561823802164
2026-07-01T14:09:50+08:0038.43894899536321
2026-07-01T14:16:43+08:0038.4532457496136
2026-07-01T14:16:46+08:0038.49207882534776
2026-07-01T14:17:41+08:0038.91711746522411
2026-07-01T14:17:44+08:0040.539992272024726
2026-07-01T14:21:12+08:0040.56839258114374
2026-07-01T14:21:15+08:0040.57264296754251
2026-07-01T14:23:54+08:0040.645285935085006
2026-07-01T14:23:57+08:0040.64663833075734
2026-07-01T14:24:28+08:0040.65475270479134
2026-07-01T14:24:31+08:0040.66267387944359
2026-07-01T14:28:22+08:0040.7362828438949
2026-07-01T14:33:41+08:0040.968122102009275
2026-07-01T15:09:28+08:0041.03419629057187
2026-07-01T15:12:38+08:0041.206530139103556
2026-07-01T15:14:06+08:0041.223338485316845
2026-07-01T15:15:53+08:0041.889103554868626
2026-07-01T15:17:48+08:0041.89663833075734
2026-07-01T15:19:32+08:0042.823995363214834
2026-07-01T16:15:15+08:0042.888910355486864
2026-07-01T16:17:43+08:0043.429289026275114
2026-07-01T16:18:54+08:0043.440108191653785
2026-07-01T16:20:19+08:0043.44629057187017
2026-07-01T16:22:27+08:0044.39296754250386
2026-07-01T16:23:50+08:0044.39219474497681
2026-07-01T17:02:14+08:0044.681993817619784
2026-07-01T17:04:11+08:0044.727009273570324
2026-07-01T17:06:06+08:0044.78670788253478
2026-07-01T17:08:36+08:0044.79250386398763
2026-07-01T17:09:54+08:0044.79308346213292
2026-07-01T17:10:38+08:0045.27608191653787
2026-07-01T17:12:18+08:0045.284582689335394
2026-07-01T18:02:02+08:0045.321483771251934
2026-07-01T18:05:13+08:0045.34234930448223
2026-07-01T18:06:37+08:0045.360896445131374
2026-07-01T18:07:50+08:0045.26642194744977
2026-07-01T18:09:16+08:0045.42098145285935
2026-07-01T18:13:55+08:0045.83481452859351
2026-07-01T20:54:47+08:0045.869976816074185
2026-07-01T20:56:20+08:0045.8435085007728
2026-07-01T20:57:49+08:0045.97778207109737
2026-07-01T20:59:32+08:0046.005023183925815
2026-07-01T21:01:29+08:0047.241499227202475
2026-07-01T21:04:32+08:0047.34466769706337
2026-07-01T22:05:50+08:0047.26236476043277
2026-07-01T22:07:36+08:0047.3435085007728
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2026-07-01T22:14:22+08:0048.81993817619784
2026-07-02T08:42:23+08:0048.933925811437405
2026-07-02T08:42:26+08:0048.95749613601237
2026-07-02T08:46:24+08:0049.04849304482226
2026-07-02T08:46:27+08:0049.28438948995363
2026-07-02T08:52:42+08:0056.33616692426584
2026-07-02T08:59:11+08:0056.33616692426584
2026-07-02T09:12:46+08:0056.85529366306028
2026-07-02T09:18:41+08:0056.89354714064915
2026-07-02T09:21:11+08:0056.9750772797527
2026-07-02T09:27:27+08:0057.14586553323029
2026-07-02T09:29:26+08:0057.33095054095827
2026-07-02T09:33:34+08:0059.05042503863988
2026-07-02T09:49:03+08:0059.796367851622875
2026-07-02T10:14:06+08:0060.54037867078825
2026-07-02T10:16:08+08:0060.53226429675425
2026-07-02T10:16:55+08:0060.69629057187017
2026-07-02T10:19:36+08:0060.66653786707882
2026-07-02T10:21:28+08:0060.70672333848532
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2026-07-02T11:15:39+08:0068.66537867078826
2026-07-02T11:17:23+08:0068.7306800618238
2026-07-02T11:19:12+08:0068.76043276661515
2026-07-02T12:11:22+08:0068.8135625965997
2026-07-02T12:16:33+08:0068.86823802163833
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2026-07-02T14:08:49+08:0071.57843894899537
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2026-07-02T22:07:53+08:00132.42387944358578
2026-07-02T22:09:25+08:00135.3703632148377
2026-07-02T22:11:29+08:00154.72894126738794
2026-07-03T08:39:11+08:00157.5554482225657
2026-07-03T08:39:13+08:00166.04520865533232
2026-07-03T08:41:45+08:00166.24826120556415
2026-07-03T08:41:48+08:00166.89818392581142
2026-07-03T08:46:28+08:00166.89818392581142
2026-07-03T08:48:51+08:00228.76062596599692
2026-07-03T09:01:28+08:00231.07901854714066
2026-07-03T09:06:42+08:00231.76700154559506
2026-07-03T09:08:42+08:00231.8755795981453
2026-07-03T09:09:41+08:00235.25734157650695
2026-07-03T09:12:55+08:00237.87171561051005
2026-07-03T09:15:01+08:00261.65455950540957
2026-07-03T09:17:01+08:00269.27782071097374
2026-07-03T10:16:13+08:00273.41383307573415
2026-07-03T10:20:56+08:00342.65649149922723
2026-07-03T11:13:43+08:00343.89354714064916
2026-07-03T11:20:54+08:00419.8
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.48
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.58
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1067.54x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.483, Pool B α=0.583) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoDke Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
562.5x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.48

Pool B

Oversubscription
562.5x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.58
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Dke (01770): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect