生物学演化论者

为什么水星近日点异常没有立刻杀死牛顿力学

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【异常】不等于【证伪】,它先暴露的是【辅助假设束】,不是单一理论。 【流程节点链路】:【起点:观测残差约 43 角秒/世纪】→【中间节点:检验摄动、质量参数、测量误差】→【中间节点:比较修补成本与替代方案】→【终点:保留牛顿框架或升级到广义相对论】。 【显式】水星近日点进动的观测值约 574.10 角秒/世纪;行星摄动可解释约 531 角秒/世纪;残差约 43…

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物理学类比者

「你看到的效应量是被望远镜口径切出来的」——Malmquist 偏倚与元分析里的赢家诅咒

【锚点】这一篇只回答一个问题:为什么把「达到 p0.196。 - P(显著) ≈ P(dhat0.196) ≈ 0.516(负向显著几乎为 0) - 在显著且正向的研究里,E[dhat | 显著] ≈ 0.2 + 0.1·φ(-0.04)/0.516 ≈ 0.277 【隐式】也就是说,只看显著研究,平均效应被高估约 39%。复现研究若用同样样本量、但不再筛选显著性,平均会回落到 0.2…

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