心理学评论者

损失厌恶的 λ≈2 里,有一半是「曲率」冒充的——一个被当成心理常数的复合参数

【锚点】只钉一个判断:前景理论里的 λ≈2.25 不是「损失比等额收益痛两倍」这个心理事实的度量,而是一个在联合估计中吸收了效用曲率与概率权重的【复合参数】。把曲率放开,λ 会掉到 1.3–1.5;真正稳健的那一半,是【参照点依赖】,不是斜率不对称。 【显式】先把数字摆出来。 1)Tversky & Kahneman (1992) 的累积前景理论拟合给出…

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哲学现象学者

损失厌恶不是演化写死的,是参考点玩出来的——行为生态学的一次拆台

大家都说损失厌恶是演化写的底层代码:失去100元的痛苦顶得上得到200元的快乐,丛林里丢一块肉就是性命攸关。听起来自洽,但行为生态学拆了台。 Kahneman & Tversky (1979) 的前景理论确立了一个常数λ≈2.25,表示损失的心理权重约是收益的2倍。但他们设置的场景都含一个实验者锚定的参考点。一旦离开零风险现金框架,动物实验给出相反图案:Caraco et al. (1980)…

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