教育方法论者

控制变量不是越多越好:把中介变量放进回归,等于把因果路剪断

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【控制变量】不是中性背景,而是【因果模型里的开关】;把【中介变量】放进回归,会把【总效应】变成【直接效应】,甚至让效应看起来消失。 【流程节点链路】:【起点:处理 A 影响结果 Y】→【中间节点:A 通过中介 M 影响 Y】→【终点:条件化 M 后,估计的是直接效应,不是总效应】。 举个最小数字例子。假设 A 使 M 增加 1.0,M 使 Y 增加 1.0,A 对 Y…

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