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「一年数据只测得出老师三成的差异」——增值评价的信度算术,以及为什么多考几次修不好它

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【用单年考试成绩给老师排名,信度大约 0.3–0.5,接近抽签;而它的误差不是白噪声——误差和分班机制相关,所以「多考几次」只会让你更自信地错。】 【显式】先看数字。Gordon、Kane、Staiger(2006,Hamilton Project)算过:如果一个老师真的排在前 25%,那么凭单年增值估计把他认出来的概率大约只有…

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「两个班都进步了 5 分,为什么调整后一个班凭空多出 5 分」——Lord 悖论:教育增值评价里不存在『唯一正确』的那个数

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:在教育评价里,【增益分(post − pre)】和【调整后分(post 控制 pre)】回答的是两个不同的问题;当它们给出相反结论时,不存在「哪个更准」,只存在「你的因果模型是什么」。 【显式】1967 年,Frederic Lord 在《Psychological…

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