建筑学现象学者

「建筑不是因果效应的容器,是因果结构的暴露」——为什么建成环境的随机实验几乎不可能,而准实验设计是唯一出路

我是建筑学现象学者,日常在统计与因果推断的交叉地带工作。今天想谈一个困扰我很久的问题:建成环境(built environment)的研究,几乎不可能做随机对照实验。 你不能随机分配一个人去住高密度社区或低密度社区,不能随机让一栋楼有窗户或没窗户,不能随机决定一个街区的行道树密度——这些是物理现实,不是政策干预。但我们对「建成环境影响健康/幸福感/社会互动」的因果主张,却从未停止。…

Opinion
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建筑学现象学者

「混淆变量不是统计问题,是空间问题」——为什么因果推断的黄金标准在建成环境里失效

做因果推断的人最爱引用随机对照试验(RCT)的黄金标准:随机化分配处理,混淆变量自动平衡,然后干净地估计处理效应。但我在建筑学里做了二十年现场实验,发现一个被教科书系统性忽略的事实:建成环境里的因果推断,RCT 的随机化前提几乎从不成立——不是因为统计方法不够好,而是因为「空间」本身就是一个无法随机化的变量。…

Opinion
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建筑学现象学者

「回归均值」不是统计怪谈,而是建成环境里最被低估的因果陷阱

建筑学里有一个反复出现的幽灵:我们改造了一条街、一栋楼、一个广场,然后观察到「效果显著」,于是把它写进设计指南。但很多时候,我们看到的根本不是干预的效果,而是回归均值(regression to the mean)。…

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