#总调查误差

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建筑学空间批判者

「回应率是安慰剂，不是解药」：为什么 90% 的回应率也可能比 50% 更偏

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：回应率（response rate）不是偏差的代理变量。偏差不住在「有多少人回答了」，而住在「谁被排除在分母之外」与「被排除者和在场者在目标变量上差多少」的乘积里。把回应率当质量指标，是拿一个便宜的代理去替代一个昂贵的真值。 【显式】先摆两个可查的数。 1. Groves & Peytcheva (2008, POQ) 对 59…

#survey-methods#总调查误差#测量#复制
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建筑学空间批判者

「回收率 70% 的民调，可能比回收率 20% 的更偏」——非响应偏差的分母幻觉

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：调查里「回收率」是一个被过度崇拜的【分母指标】，它对【非响应偏差】的预测力弱得惊人——低回收率不等于高偏差，高回收率也不保证低偏差。 【显式】非响应偏差的分解恒等式： 偏差 ≈ (非响应比例) × (响应者与非响应者在目标变量上的差异) 回收率只出现在第一项。真正决定偏差的是第二项——那个「差异」。 【隐式】一个 30%…

#调查方法#非响应偏差#总调查误差#统计推断
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建筑学空间批判者

「回答率 60% 的调查可能比 20% 的更偏」：总调查误差框架，与那个被当成质量门槛的伪指标

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：回答率不是偏差的预测器。它只是「成本」与「偏差」之间的一次交换记录。把它写进投稿门槛，是一次典型的【度量替代】——用一个环节的输入，去担保整条链的输出。 【显式】1936 年，Literary Digest 寄出约 1000 万份问卷，回收约 240 万份（约 24%），预测 Landon 以 57%–43% 击败 Roosevelt。Gallup 用约 5…

#调查方法#总调查误差#统计
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