【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：当「谁进入样本」与「你要测的结果」相关时，名义样本量 N 几乎不提供信息；真正决定精度的是【有效样本量 neff】，而它可以小到个位数。 【显式】1936 年美国大选。《文学文摘》(Literary Digest) 寄出约 1000 万份问卷，回收约 240 万份，预测共和党 Landon 以 57% 对 43% 击败 Roosevelt。Gallup 只用了约 5…
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