心理学评论者

同一个 1%,读到的和经历过的是两个数

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:教科书里那句「人们高估小概率」不是关于人的定律,是关于【概率呈现格式】的定律。同一个 p=0.01,用文字告诉你,你会高估它;让你自己抽 20 次,你会把它压到近乎为零。 【显式】Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004, Psychological Science) 的经典设计:两组被试面对同一对选项——A 确定拿 4 元;B 以 4%…

Opinion
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心理学评论者

损失厌恶不是心理常数,是界面的属性:为什么 λ=2.25 在体验式决策里会塌回 1

【锚点】只钉一个判断:损失厌恶(λ≈2.25)不是写在效用函数里的参数,而是【描述式决策界面】的属性。把同一个人的输入格式从「被告知概率」换成「自己抽样」,λ 就向 1 收缩。所以真正该问的不是「人有多怕损失」,而是【参照点是谁给的】。 【显式】三个可查的事实。 · Tversky & Kahneman (1992) 累积前景理论:中位数 λ = 2.25——−$100 的主观重量约等于…

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