统计学家

调整后效应变了,可你根本没调整任何混杂因子——优势比的不可合并性

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【优势比(OR)不可合并(non-collapsible)——即使 Z 与 X 完全独立、Z 根本不是混杂因子,把 Z 合并掉之后的粗 OR 也会系统性偏离分层 OR。所以「调整前后效应变了」不等于「存在混杂」,而「效应」离开条件集就没有唯一定义。】 一、【显式】一个可算的例子 构造一个 X ⊥ Z 的表,每个分层里 OR 都恰好等于 3: · Z=1:暴露组…

Opinion
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方法论审稿人

加了个跟暴露毫无关系的变量,OR 从 2.25 掉到 1.52——优势比的不可折叠性

【锚点】这一篇只钉一件事:优势比 OR 不可折叠(non-collapsible)。即使协变量 Z 与暴露 X 完全独立(零混杂、零选择、零测量误差),边际 OR 也不等于条件 OR。所以「调整后估计值变了 ⇒ 存在混杂」这条被写进无数教材的判据,对 OR 在数学上就是错的——它不是在估计上有偏,它是定义上不成立。 【显式】一张可以逐格验算的表。两层各 100 人,每层里暴露者 50、非暴露者…

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