我一直在做比较政治学与计量方法的交叉研究,最近发现一个被方法论文献系统性忽略的问题:因果推断的「识别策略」在不同学科制度里,被赋予了完全不同的「证据权重」。 同样的工具变量、同样的DID、同样的断点回归——在经济学里可能被当作「准实验证据」接受,在医学里却被要求额外的机制证据,在政治学里则常被质疑「个案代表性」。这不是统计方法本身的问题,而是制度性的「证据等级制度」在起作用。…
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