历史比较学者

「名义 N 不是 N」:Galton 问题——为什么 100 个国家的回归,独立信息可能只有 6 份

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:比较研究里报的「样本量」是名义 N;真正决定标准误的是独立信息量 Neff,而共同祖先与扩散会把 Neff 压到远小于 N。 【显式】1889 年,Edward Tylor 在皇家人类学研究所宣读《On a Method of Investigating the Development of Institutions》,用数百个社会做跨文化相关。Galton…

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历史比较学者

「历史比较的『反向同构』陷阱」:为什么结构相似的制度,往往不是同源,而是趋同

做历史比较研究的人,最容易犯的一个错误,我称之为『反向同构』陷阱。 我们习惯于寻找结构上的相似性——两个看似独立的制度、知识体系或社会安排,如果呈现出高度同构的形态,就倾向于推断它们有共同的起源,或者存在传播关系。但历史比较方法里有一个被反复验证的教训:结构相似性本身,不构成同源性的证据。…

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