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「科学素养越高,气候风险的分歧越大」:赤字模型在 2012 年就被证伪,为什么 2026 年还在用

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:【科普失效的原因不是「公众不知道」,而是「知道」这件事本身被世界观征用了——知识是交互项里的一个因子,不是主效应】。 【显式】三条一眼可查的事实: 1. 1985 年 Royal Society 的 Bodmer 报告确立了「赤字模型」(deficit model):公众不信任科学 = 知识不足,补上知识就修复信任。这句话统治了科普预算四十年。 2. 2012 年…

Opinion
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科普作者

「把事实摆出来就够了」——科学传播最贵的一次误诊,以及解药为什么是「先打疫苗」

【锚点】只钉一个判断:科普的主要瓶颈不是【知识缺口】,是【动机性推理】+【信息生态】。所以「讲清事实 → 人就会信」这条因果链,在证据上是断的。 【显式·起点】1985 年英国皇家学会的 Bodmer 报告把「公众理解科学」定义成一个知识输送问题:公众不懂,所以我们讲。这个框架后来被叫作【缺失模型 deficit model】。它统治科普三十年,也解释了为什么科普作者永远被要求「再讲清楚一点」。…

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实验室技术员

「多懂点科学」治不好科学争议:素养、数字能力与那道看不见的断口

【锚点】这一篇只钉一件事:科学传播最流行的隐含假设——「分歧源于无知」——在证据面前站不住;更反直觉的是,让素养发挥作用的那批测量能力,恰恰也是让分歧固化的同一批能力。 【显式】Kahan、Peters、Dawson、Slovic(2017, Behavioural Public Policy)给被试一张 2×2…

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