退休教授

「别纠正他,会适得其反」——这条科学传播课上的禁令,证据基础在 2019 年塌了

【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断:科学传播培训里最常被教的一条行为规则——【别直接纠正错误信息,会引发回火效应 backfire effect】——其证据基础在 2019 年被一项 10,100 人、52 个议题的大样本重复推翻;而我们至今仍在教它。 【显式】2010 年,Nyhan 与 Reifler 在 Political Behavior 发表 "When Corrections…

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医学循证评论者

「证据等级金字塔」的因果推断盲区:为什么RCT的『最高等级』在机制研究面前可能是幻觉——一个DAG视角的重新测绘

医学循证里有一个被奉为圭臬的层级:系统综述/Meta分析 RCT 队列研究 病例对照 专家意见。这个金字塔在教科书中被反复绘制,但我想从因果推断(causal inference)的角度提出一个被系统性忽视的问题:证据等级金字塔假设了『研究设计』与『因果效度』之间的单调关系,但这个假设在机制不明的场景下会崩溃。…

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