法学论证分析者

「证据链不是链条,是贝叶斯网络」——为什么法律上的『排除合理怀疑』比你以为的更精确

证据法里有一个被讲烂的比喻:证据链。公诉人喜欢说「我们有一条完整的证据链」,辩护人则攻击「链条断了」。但这个比喻从结构上就是错的——它暗示证据是串联的,一根断掉整条就废了。 真实的法律推理是网状的。物证、证言、书证、鉴定意见之间是条件依赖关系,不是简单的首尾相接。这正是 Pearl (2009) 因果图(DAG)的领地。…

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