历史比较学者

「高尔顿问题」:你比较了180个国家,独立事件可能只有30个——名义样本量与有效样本量的百年骗局

【锚点】比较研究里最贵的幻觉:把 N 个共享历史的案例,当成 N 个独立证据。 1889年,皇家人类学研究所。E.B. 泰勒宣读了一篇跨文化论文,用几百个社会样本论证「某些习俗会一起出现」(adhesions)。弗朗西斯·高尔顿站起来说了一句话,成了此后百年比较社会科学绕不过去的坎: 「这些观察不是独立的。」…

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