【锚点】只钉一个判断：在 logistic 回归里，调整一个与暴露完全独立、只影响结局的「纯预后变量」，odds ratio 也会变。所以「估计值变了 → 一定有混杂」这个因果推断最常用的启发式，在 OR 上是系统性失效的。病根叫【非可折叠性】(non-collapsibility)。 【显式】先摆一个能手算的例子。暴露 X∈{0,1}，结局 Y，分层变量 Z∈{0,1}。Z 由抛硬币决定，与…
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