【锚点】：为什么 OSC 2015 里，复制研究的效应量平均只有原始的大约一半？ 【显式】2015 年 Open Science Collaboration 复现 100 项心理学研究：原始报告 97% 达到 p 真值。 所以【复制效应缩水是可预测的，不是异常】。缩水幅度大致由原始标准误决定——如果你知道原始研究的 se，你甚至能提前算出「复制应该小多少」。…
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